It is obvious that Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) strategy in the state elections on Aug 12 is to ride on the “green wave”. While that strategy might work in Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah among the largely more conservative voters, it might backfire in Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan dominated by urban voters.

In Kelantan, PN partner PAS is contesting 39 of the 45 seats in the Kelantan state assembly with Bersatu contesting the remaining six. In Terengganu’s 32 seats, PAS is contesting 27 seats, and Bersatu five. In Kedah, PAS is contesting 21 seats, Bersatu 12, and Gerakan three of the 36-member state assembly.

The fact that PAS was given the majority of the seats to contest in these states is an acknowledgment that the support for PAS that gave the Islamic party 41 parliamentary seats in the last general elections in November remains and will be demonstrated once again in the state elections.

It is likely that PN will win and return to govern Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu. What will be anticipated is whether Bersatu will increase its representation in the state assemblies.

In Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan, PAS has been given more seats to stand for election on the premise that the green wave may have extended to these states and that may aid in uniting the Malays in these three states to vote for PN.

Of the 40 seats in the Penang state assembly, Gerakan will contest 20 state seats, Bersatu, 10, and Pas, 10 under PN. In Selangor, Bersatu has the largest share of seats with 31, PAS, 17, and Gerakan, eight, out of a total of 56 seats. Of Negri Sembilan’s 36 seats, Bersatu will be contesting 15, PAS, 13, and Gerakan six.

Up to now, the voters in these three states have traditionally shunned PAS, with PAS winning only occasionally in the past. To give them a sizeable share of the seats in these three states may spook the urban voters, including the Malay voters, and that may be translated to a loss of votes for PN.

PN failed to factor in the fact that a sizeable number of urban Malay voters — while in favour of Malay unity — may not be willing to sacrifice their individual freedoms by voting for a coalition with a partner known for its hardline medieval brand of religion. The urban non-Malays will definitely not vote for PAS or PN candidates if they suspect PAS may end up as a dominant party in PN.

Therefore, in the seats where PAS is standing for election, Pakatan Harapan (PH) candidates stand a good chance of winning. Where PAS is facing an Umno candidate, considering the current sentiments against Umno, PAS stands a good chance of winning and that would be troubling for PN.

Non-Malays fearing a significant PAS presence in the state government may vote for PH even if they are disappointed with the PH-Umno alliance and PH president and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s performance.

So, it will be a close call for either coalition in Selangor and Negri Sembilan. The state elections will prove whether Umno is a liability to PH in general and PAS to PN in Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan.

After the hullabaloo that the former Kedah’s PAS Menteri Besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor made over Penang being a part of Kedah, it would be an uphill task for PAS to win support for PN. In the spirit of Malay unity, however, PN may increase its representation in the Penang state assembly.

In Selangor, to hedge against a possibility of a hung state assembly, it would be wise for voters to vote for Muda.

Muda is contesting 14 seats in Selangor and three in Penang, two in Negri Sembilan and one in Terengganu. It may not make an impact in Penang, Negri Sembilan and Terengganu but with 14 seats in Selangor, it could, especially in the event of a hung state assembly.

Besides, Muda represents values the urban voters can identify with, such as its multi-ethnic, progressive people-centric politics. Its youthful idealism is a refreshing change from the jaded compromised politics of its seniors. Hopefully, Muda politicians will remain true to their stated agenda even after years of political engagement.

In Selangor, especially, in the coming state elections voters have an alternative in Muda and they should seriously consider giving it a chance to prove itself. The collective outcome of the state elections as a result of Muda’s participation may be just what the people want and need now.