The political climate was ripe for Perikatan Nasional (PN) to win the Pelangai state by-election last Saturday, but the coalition didn’t. Despite discontent over Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s dismissal not amounting to an acquittal (DNAA) and the lack of reforms and economic upliftment under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s administration, PN lost.

It is, no doubt, to PN’s credit that it lost by a smaller majority of 2,949 compared to the 4,048 majority the Umno candidate, Johari Harun, got in the general election last November. The state by-election was called following Johari’s death in the Elmina plane crash in August.

In a small state constituency such as Pelangai with only 16,456 eligible voters and which is an Umno stronghold, a 3,000-vote loss may seem small. Why then was PN unable to trigger a dramatic swing of that small number to its side and win?

This is the question PN needs to ask and examine the factors that caused their defeat when the political environment was conducive to their win.

Two factors come to mind. Firstly, PN read the ground incorrectly. It read the ground correctly in the six-state elections in August and fielded a majority of PAS candidates in the north where it won three states. But, south of these states, fielding PAS candidates did not produce the desired results.

In the southern states of Selangor and Negeri Sembilan and in Pelangai, it is apparent that Malay voters, particularly Umno voters, do not regard PAS candidates in the same way the conservative north does.

It is also apparent that these same Malay voters want an alternative choice to Umno as evidenced by the fact that an increasing number is choosing PN but there are still many who rather vote for the devil they know than the deep blue sea.

PN needs to address what is withholding the latter from swinging to its side.

Secondly, if PN had fielded a Bersatu candidate in Pelangai, would the results have been different?

As long as PN keeps fielding PAS candidates to ride on the green wave which clearly does not exist in the southern states, it is sending the message that PN will be a PAS-dominant coalition. That is a turn-off to non-Malay voters and many Malay voters.

In the current political climate, where disillusionment with the ruling unity coalition is considerably high and rising as each passing day reveals the behind-the-scenes political hanky-panky going on to keep the unity coalition in government, a PAS-dominant PN may be a reluctant alternative.

Voters may have been open to voting for the PAS candidate in Pelangai. But on the eve of the elections, the PAS-led Terengganu government pulled out its gymnasts from participating in Sukma 2024 on the grounds that their outfits were not Syariah-compliant. At the same time, Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin announced that if PN wins Pelangai and triggers a switch of assemblypersons to its side to form the next government, PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man would be the next menteri besar of Pahang.

Both these announcements would have spooked not just the non-Malays but the Malays themselves who would have an idea as to what to expect should PAS win. That would have been enough to change their mind about voting for the PAS candidate.

Voters, including Malay voters, are not that taken up by PAS. It was apparent in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan. PN needs to ask itself if fielding PAS candidates rather than Bersatu candidates is working in its favour or against it. It is certainly working in favour of Umno because Umno is keeping its seats.

A PAS-dominant PN is not delivering the expected votes in the southern states. But a Bersatu-dominant PN might. A Bersatu-dominant PN will show that PAS’ extreme ways will be held in check and that minority interests will not be suppressed by religious domination and that would have a greater appeal to both the reluctant Malays and non-Malays.

Bersatu needs to start building itself up and fielding capable, people-serving and constitutionally-aware candidates in subsequent elections, especially in the non-PAS-ruled states. They should talk about how they would better the incumbent unity government in terms of policies for Malays and non-Malays and offer effective action plans that will not sideline any community in Malaysia.

Bersatu rather than PAS can demonstrate that PN is a coalition for all Malaysians and that it would not sacrifice non-Malay interests for the sake of a Malay-majority government. As a Malay-majority coalition, if it shows itself inclusive of non-Malay interests, it would have a wider appeal and in that confidence, it should field a Bersatu candidate in the next election should such an opportunity arise.

The results might be the very turnaround PN is seeking. PN won’t know for sure until this strategy is tested.