Tonight (July 26), a mammoth “Turun Anwar” rally is being planned to call for the resignation of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. Organised by the Opposition, Perikatan Nasional (PN), the rally is expected to attract thousands.

PN component partner Bersatu’s deputy president Hamzah Zainuddin claimed in Parliament that he expects about 500,000 people to attend the rally at Dataran Merdeka. If such a figure did turn up at the rally, Anwar will be faced with the daunting prospect of recognising the will of the people and stepping down or defying the people and staying on as PM.

PN may be confident of a large turnout based on feedback from the ground. Realistically, however, that figure may be hoped for rather than expected. If 500,000 people do turn up at the rally, it would be a very clear indication of the discontent on the ground and it would do well for Anwar to heed what the people want.

Even if the turnout was less than expected, even if it is only 10,000 or even less, Anwar has to take note of it seriously. A smaller crowd does not mean that the discontent is limited. It could mean the tip of the iceberg and Anwar should not wait until the submerged iceberg of discontent swells up and sweeps over!

Nevertheless, Anwar has dismissed the rally, saying that it doesn’t mean anything as his administration is intact. He has also said that he would not step down unless he loses a confidence vote in the Dewan Rakyat. It was reported in the media that he has instructed the Speaker of the Dewan Rakyat to agree to a confidence or no-confidence vote should the MPs call for one.

A confidence/no-confidence vote in the Dewan Rakyat is the conventional means of removing a prime minister from office. In the current political scenario, however, even if the Speaker allows for one, the government MPs will not be free to vote according to their conscience and the outcome would likely favour the incumbent PM, for just one reason. The political parties which joined Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition to form a majority government are bound by a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) where they promise to support him for a full term. In exchange they got benefits.

So, Anwar’s deceptive confidence is understandable. The MoU will ensure he wins a confidence/no-confidence vote so he can appear magnanimous in inviting MPs to call for one knowing he will pass the test.

That direction to the Speaker to accommodate a call for a confidence/no-confidence vote, however, reveals the PM’s lack of interest in resolving the issue of a hung Parliament or the need to prove a PM’s majority support in the House. It amounts to executive interference. His direction indicates that the Speaker is not independent.

As a PM who claims to be a reformist, Anwar would have proven his word true if the first thing he had done after being appointed PM was to implement a process by law to call for a confidence/no-confidence vote to solve the urgent issue of a hung Parliament and in choosing a PM with the majority support of the Dewan Rakyat.

With a two-thirds majority, albeit by an undemocratic MoU, he could have easily done it. The fact that he didn’t simply shows that he himself wasn’t confident of his purported majority support of the MPs.

Now, if the PM is sincere, he would cancel the MoU, free the MPs to vote as they wish, set in place the proper process to call for confidence/no-confidence vote and leave it to the MPs to decide what to do.

Since he hasn’t done that and if today’s rally draws thousands, Anwar has to consider their request and resign. If he fails to do that, the Opposition now has very strong grounds to lobby government MPs to support a call for a confidence/no-confidence vote on the grounds that a large segment of the people have no confidence in him.

MPs who understand the democratic principle of accountability will support PN unless they want to lose their voters. It is not worth risking that.

Today’s rally will have a bearing on Anwar’s future as PM.