All posts by Gertrude

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About Gertrude

I am a little left of centre 21st Century person. What all that means you'll discover as you read my blog!

Debate and anti-hopping bill favour Najib

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It is very likely — if the events subsequent to the famous Sheraton moves are anything to go by — that the scheduled debate between former prime minister and now Umno adviser Najib Razak and PKR president Anwar Ibrahim and vice-president Rafizi Ramli will turn to Najib’s advantage.

Rafizi threw Najib a dare to debate the financially-troubled Sapura Energy Berhad after the latter suggested a government bailout of the company. Najib took up the dare on the condition that the debate was with Anwar with Rafizi alongside.

In doing so, Najib framed the debate as one between equals, a former prime minister and the current Opposition leader. It lends credibility to his position as a force of influence and diminishes his conviction for criminal charges in the eyes of his supporters which, precisely, is his objective.

In addition, he is turning the debate into a major public relations exercise as he wants to live stream the debate. Najib sees the debate as a chance to “rock it!” Live-streamed and rocking it as he engages with an equal, his credibility enhances in the eyes of his voter base. His voters will see him as having an intelligent discussion with opposition politicians and will be impressed, seeing him as a capable leader holding his own.

Even if he loses the debate in that Anwar and Rafizi may succeed in rebutting him, he will still come out smelling like a rose because he framed the debate as one between friends on opposing sides of an issue who are simply “rocking it”! So, in gentlemanly fashion, he would graciously accept defeat, offering a handshake to the winners as they are still friends. His target voter base will be warmed to know the debate between the Malay leaders was so amicable even if Najib lost. Another of Najib’s public relations exercises which will bring about the desired payoff. More votes for his side — Umno and Barisan Nasional (BN)!

But, what will PKR get?

PKR is probably hoping that their attempt at an expose will undermine Najib’s appeal. Will it work against his PR campaigns? So far it hasn’t. PKR was thrashed in all the recent elections in Malacca, Sarawak and Johor while Najib successfully worked the crowds and won without discussing issues and simply humbly smiling a lot and identifying with the base.

(Of course, there’s that other issue of alleged cash incentives that follow his campaign trail. That’s just the icing on the cake. They come together, the voters know!)

Can PKR match it? Or will the issues Anwar and Rafizi raise fall like water off a duck’s back?

If PKR is hoping to lure the fence-sitters, Anwar and Rafizi, perhaps have not fully understood that the fence-sitters don’t need convincing. They are already convinced about who Najib is and voted for Pakatan Harapan (PH) in the 2018 general elections to get rid of him only to be disappointed by PH by the subsequent decisions it made which have brought him back to a position of influence.

So, engaging Najib in any form whether through a debate or a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with his party is just playing into his hands. He benefits at the expense of the other side.

Besides, the Sapura Energy issue is of national importance as it involves taxpayers’ money and should be discussed in the Dewan Rakyat which will expose the issue to a wider national audience.

With regard to the MoU, is it also another chance to play into Najib’s hands? Apparently, Bersatu is not keen on passing the anti-hopping bill — a condition of the MoU — which means the government is not confident the bill will be passed with a two-thirds majority, which is the requirement for the bill to be passed.

PH parties want the bill passed and have declared they will support it. Other opposition parties have not made their stand.

In the current political scenario, which party stands to gain the most from passing the anti-hopping bill? Umno, because if some of their MPs leave to join other parties, Umno will be unable to form a majority government. So, it serves Umno’s purpose for the anti-hopping bill to be passed.

The Umno-led government has deferred the introduction of the bill to a special Dewan Rakyat sitting next Monday but as of yesterday it was announced that the bill will not be introduced but an amendment to the federal constitution will be introduced instead which must be passed with a two-thirds majority to “facilitate” the future passing of the bill.

If the bill can’t be passed now with a two-thirds majority, what needs to “facilitate” the passing of the bill in the future? It can only mean one thing: The introduction of the amendment to the federal constitution is meant to allow for the passing of the anti-hopping bill later with a simple majority and not a two-thirds majority.

That may be possible even if Bersatu MPs oppose the bill. If that’s the case, MPs must be allowed to vote according to their conscience. If the anti-hopping bill can not get a two-thirds majority of support from the MPs, it should be shelved. This bill is too significant to be passed with only half the house supporting it.

It was reported that Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob will be holding a meeting on Sunday to inform the MPs what the amendment to the federal constitution will entail. Whatever that is, MPs must be allowed to vote according to their conscience.

It is unethical to twist the constitution to pass an amendment with the help of an MoU in order for the easy passing of an important bill that will affect every constituent in the country just so that a bill is passed with a simple majority to protect political parties — particularly Umno in the current political scenario — and bring back a leader and his cohorts to power aided and abetted by opposition parties.

Umno stands to gain but PH may see losing more ground.

That is playing into Najib’s sleight of hand!

How to beat the Najib factor

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Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin gave lengthy explanations to assure critics that all the data on MySejahtera is solely owned by the government. He further justified the viability of the app after its check-in function is retired as a base to build a digitised medical record system.

However, he failed to address the crux of the matter which is whether the “business arrangement” the government made with the app’s developer, KPIsoft (now known as Entomo (M) Sdn Bhd) was a result of direct negotiation or open tender.

Amidst all the explanations given that remains the unanswered question. Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob could have cast some light on the matter but he’s not around or recovering from a hectic trip to Qatar. He must be the only head of state who makes frequent official trips abroad during this pandemic — to Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Qatar — presumably to boost trade the outcome of which is mainly to open travel lanes, which he could have done via a telephone call!

While Sabri was away, his coalition partners were busy lining up to meet Pejuang chairman and former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad. Perikatan Nasional (PN) partner Bersatu’s president Muhiyiddin Yassin had met up with Tun to ask for support to enable him (Muhyiddin) to be prime minister again. It seems PAS president Hadi Awang is also expected to meet up with Tun. Both may be manoeuvering to form a majority government in an alliance with Pejuang.

The above events simply indicate that the top leadership is absent in more ways than one and it is time for a general election (GE) to replace the current leadership so that we have a prime minister who is elected and who actually leads!

But, will a GE solve the leadership problem? If the current alliances do not change, it will not. That, perhaps, is why both Bersatu and PAS are looking to form a new alliance with Pejuang or vice versa.

Political parties and MPs need to be certain who they ally with. There are two parties to avoid at all cost: Umno, of course, with its court cluster leadership and PAS. PAS plays the field, seeing which party to ally with in the name of the so-called ummah but it had no problems standing by and watching while Muhyiddin — in the name of the ummah — broke up the ummah by sacking Tun and a few others. These same people are seeking Tun’s help now. How ironical! Let the people judge for themselves the nature of these politicians.

If Pejuang accommodates these two leaders, it will be alienating itself from the urban-based parties with whom is the best possibility for a coalition with a majority.

However, if MPs from Bersatu and PAS want to join Pejuang, that should be welcomed, in fact, encouraged!

PAS like Umno must be isolated because both are a threat to the multi-racial fabric that holds Malaysian society together. PAS will play the religious card in exchange for votes. That is unacceptable.

Umno, led by the court cluster, is the most imminent threat to the nation. If it is not isolated and comes back to power to lead the nation, the supremacy of the federal constitution will be at risk. That is what is at stake here.

Led by desperadoes president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and adviser and former prime minister Najib Razak, Umno will be willing to compromise the federal constitution to give constitutional monarchy sway over parliamentary democracy if in doing so they can get a royal pardon and escape sentencing that might mean a jail term, or for any other reason deemed fit for them.

Look at Johor. The mandate of the people was overruled by the decision of the Sultan over the choice of Mentri Besar and Umno did not fight for the people. With regard to the Maharani Energy Gateway project, according to Muar MP Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman, the Department of Environment had allegedly taken down an environmental impact assessment for the project from its official website after he raised concerns over a reclamation project linked to the Johor Sultan.

The EIA is a public document. Why was it removed? Apart from Syed Saddiq, who are speaking up for the people? PKR and DAP assemblypersons aren’t because they can’t. They were seen in photographs with the Johor royalty.

We can not afford to have a similar situation at the federal level where constitutional monarchy assumes a superior position over parliamentary democracy. Just like in Johor, that may happen if Umno comes back to power led by the court cluster.

That is the reason why Umno must be defeated and removed from all political equations.

There are four possible ways to achieve this objective.

Firstly, if Umno members can remove the court cluster from their leadership positions, they will save their party and it can be considered a possible ally. But that hasn’t happened and if at all it happens it will happen next year when party elections are held. That’s too long a wait.

Secondly, Umno MPs can leave the party and join other parties. That’s the best course of action if they want to protect the constitution rather than put money in their pockets. Well, they should do it before the anti-hopping bill is passed.

Thirdly, break all ties with Umno whether through a coalition at the state or federal level or the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)with Pakatan Harapan (PH). Who knows, PH parties may win back the support they lost as a result of the MoU.

Frankly, after being thrown out of the state government in Johor by its coalition partner, PN should have resigned from the government at the federal level. Understandably that might be a difficult thing to do as it would trigger both federal and state elections. So, PN parties need to tolerate their awkward position a little longer.

If none of the above happens, then, the last and fourth solution is to call for a general election. If PN or Umno leaves the government or the MoU is ended and not extended, it would trigger a general election.

Apart from Umno, no other party or coalition wants a general election because they are not confident they can win enough seats to form a coalition with a majority. But if Umno is isolated, all the other parties can negotiate to form a coalition with a majority, perhaps even a two-thirds majority.

It’s a possible scenario if the over-riding objective is to defeat Umno rather than manoeuvre to become prime minister. The candidate for the prime ministership should be one who can get the support of the majority.

For the fourth scenario to happen one very important factor needs to be recognized. The new coalition or parties in that coalition must be able to win some of the seats in Umno’s strongholds and a few more Malay-majority urban seats.

For these voters, the issues are survival and essentials. Multi-culturalism, criticisms of race-based politics and other such favourite middle-class and urban issues will fall on deaf ears. Urban voters need to understand this and refrain from accusing those who can reach the rural and urban poor because without their votes Umno will win, and we can say goodbye to parliamentary democracy!

A general election is the best solution to be free from the Najib factor if Umno can be isolated before that. Between now and then the voters need to be watching: Which MP or party will choose to act to isolate Umno and save parliamentary democracy or stay put and save their pockets? We will then know who to vote for.

No moral grounds but still holding on to power

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So, why are Umno leaders making noise again? This time over the defeat of the government bill to amend a clause in the Security Offences (Special Measures) 2012 Act (Sosma) once it expires on July 31, 2022.

The clause in question is Section 4(5) of Sosma, which allows for detention without a court order for up to 28 days. According to Section 4(11) of Sosma, the enforceability of Section 4(5) must be renewed by both Houses of Parliament every five years. Now, that the government bill has been defeated in the Dewan Rakyat, that provision has been removed from Sosma.

So, what’s bothering Umno MPs that this government motion was defeated? Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi expressed shock that the government bill was defeated and blamed it on the opposition saying “they have broken their promises, violated the agreement (MOU signed between the government and the opposition) and completely ignored their previous commitments.”

It has since been pointed out that a number of government and opposition (more government than opposition) MPs didn’t vote resulting in the defeat of the motion. And that the MOU clearly states that the opposition’s obligation to not vote or abstain only refers to a bill tabled by the government which, if failed to pass, will bring down the government. In this case, it wasn’t such a bill.

Communications and Multimedia Minister Tan Sri Annuar Musa — an Umno MP — earlier had also said that the defeat of the bill meant that the opposition’s action had effectively nullified the MOU.

Both Zahid and Annuar stand corrected and their criticisms have stopped but it reveals their sad lack of knowledge of available information and the will to act on correct information. Instead, they make a lot of noise at the risk of looking foolish and when found out behave as quiet as a mouse but will still hold on to their positions.

Joining his fellow party members, Umno’s Padang Rengas MP Nazri Aziz argued that it doesn’t matter if the MOU was affected or not but that it was a matter of perception and that the people would perceive it as the government — despite having a majority — lost.

Perceived as having lost, Nazri felt the Barisan Nasional (BN) has lost the “moral ground” to run the government. Oh, really? What about joining forces with other parties to form an unelected government that to this day refuses to prove its majority? That isn’t losing the “moral ground” to govern?

Strangely, when Umno’s candidate for the Mentri Besar’s post in Johor was rejected, there was little or no noise by Umno politicians. Even at the recently-concluded Umno general assembly, there was not a sound about the Johor MB issue.

It was a clear-cut case. It was within the Sultan’s powers as according to the federal constitution to reject a candidate and choose another from the list of names submitted to him. He exercised his rights under the highest power of the land, the constitution. But, why didn’t Umno exercise its rights under the constitution and, instead, deferred to the Sultan?

Do Umno MPs and assemblypersons know and understand the constitution to act within its authority? It’s within the state government’s authority to call for a confidence vote in the state assembly for the appointed MB. With more than a two-thirds majority, Umno could have rejected the candidate and sent the list back to the Sultan. Of course, it would have soured relations between the two but, as Nazri said, as a matter of perception the people would have seen Umno standing up for them.

They failed to do that and consequently lost the “moral ground” to lead the state government. Yet, they are there.

All this noise on issues that are not issues and silence over issues that are the real issues simply reflects a powerless and immoral government. The Umno-led government claims a majority but fails to defend the people’s choices. They have no moral grounds to govern at all.

Will they, then, step down? Unlikely. They need to remain in government for their own personal agendas. Meanwhile, whatever they do is simply a lot of hot air, shadow boxing. Useless activity.

Most of us the majority see through their antics. Unfortunately for us and fortunately for them, their voter base has bought into their spurious narrative.

I hope word gets around and reaches their voters that they are being led by their noses.

A strategy to stop the Najib factor

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Some factions in Umno are clamouring for snap elections based on the party’s success in the Johor and Melaka state elections. If general elections are held soon, Umno might win again based on the formula on which it won the state elections. Then, again, it may not.

Umno won the Johor state elections on a very low voter turnout of 43%. According to Bangi MP Ong Kian Ming, out of the 40 seats Barisan Nasional (BN) — of which Umno is the leading party — won, 20 or half had less than 50% of the popular votes.

It was also reported that in the urban Malay-majority seats which Umno won, the combined votes that went to Perikatan Nasional (PN) and the opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) made up a majority over the votes Umno got. In other words, the majority of the voters, perhaps even the majority of Malay voters, do not support Umno/BN.

That being the case, it is astonishing that former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s party, Pejuang, failed to win even one seat and instead lost all its deposits. It is important to find out why Pejuang lost so miserably as it would shed some light on the forces influencing Malaysian politics now.

Pejuang would not have gone into the Johor state elections if it didn’t have any support. It may not have formed the state government but, considering Tun’s stature, it would have won a few seats, at the least. The standard explanation given to explain Pejuang’s dismal performance in the Johor state elections is that the voters have rejected Tun and what he stands for. I beg to differ.

Tun represents a strong, albeit unbending, leadership. And, there were expectations that his party would make an impact in the Johor elections. But he fell seriously ill just before the elections and the immediate reaction to that fact was that both Pejuang and his supporters lost heart. It was a reality check for all. The prospect of a strong leadership began fading into history and Pejuang leaders had too short a time to prove that they could provide the strong leadership that their chairman represented.

Tun recovered and by the time Pejuang did, the available time was insufficient, as its president Mukhriz Mahathir explained, to engage the voters and show them their mettle. Meanwhile, the voters made a pragmatic decision: In the absence of a strong leadership, they voted for other parties.

Pejuang has been knocked down but it is not out. According to a Bernama report, Pejuang obtained 18,692 votes or 1.34% of the votes, which means it still has some support. That base support can be galvanized to create the momentum to draw increasing support if Pejuang rises to its feet, lifts up the torch that Tun has lit, stands up for this nation and lives up to its name. It all depends on Pejuang leaders now.

Why am I taking the trouble to talk about Pejuang? Let’s consider what would have happened if Pejuang had found a foothold in the Johor state assembly. Would Johor’s appointment of its Mentri Besar have been handled in the way it has?

Umno has more than a two-thirds majority in the state assembly. Any party with that kind of a majority that holds itself responsible for being accountable to its voters would have fought for its candidate. The prime minister is an Umno vice president and has the leverage to assert its federal government authority to back his party’s candidate in the state. Why did Umno acquiesce and gave in to a “higher power”?

The answer is in its court cluster leadership. Although it is answerable to the people and no one else, Umno’s court cluster would rather ensure its survival by not antagonizing the Johor Sultan whose support they might need at the state and federal levels and, especially, in the event they are convicted and need a royal pardon. That seems to be the only logical explanation.

The court cluster’s intentions are common knowledge and it revolves around one person, in particular, former prime minister and Umno advisor Najib Razak. Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has publicly acknowledged that it was Najib’s influence that won Umno the majority to govern Johor.

But what is not logical is how the Najib factor is able to demolish all the opposition it has faced and create a power vacuum that is paving the way for his comeback, perhaps even as prime minister. In that power vacuum, vested interests are asserting themselves as in Johor and neither Zahid nor Najib is stopping it.

Instead, every competitor to Najib has been removed or made irrelevant. Muhyiddin has been removed. The formidable Mahathir, too, has been pushed aside and his party struck down. Sabri is a puppet in the hands of the court cluster. Election after election, the Najib factor is gaining ground on an incredulous and inexplicable unbroken winning streak!

There seems to be more than meets the eye to the reasons for the success of the Najib factor, a sleight of hand, pulling the strings to facilitate the survival of the court cluster by ensuring that all opposition to it is removed, and, in the process distorting the political reality. I suspect it is also creating the fear of repercussions should there be any opposition to the advance of the Najib factor.

That, perhaps, is why Umno politicians are unable to do what they know is constitutionally correct. All the noise they make simply masks the fear that if they oppose the Najib factor in any way they would be burnt as Muhyiddin, Mahathir and Pejuang have.

That sleight of hand which is the Najib factor is also common knowledge. My purpose is not to identify it but to expose its modus operandi based on what is evident and, more importantly, to declare that it can be stopped!

The Solution

Sever all links with the court cluster and the party of which they are members, which, in this case, is Umno.

Muhyiddin invited Umno to join PN as part of the Sheraton moves fully aware its leaders were facing criminal charges in court. Intentionally or not, he opened a channel for the Najib factor to access the corridors of political power and influence political outcomes. We have witnessed it in the return of Umno to power.

The only way to stop the Najib factor from spreading to achieve what it wants is to cut all links to it. By doing so, it will be disabled from influencing politics. Politicians and BN partners have to decide whether to remain in and with Umno. If they do and there is conflict in priorities against the priority of the Najib factor for self-preservation, be prepared to get burnt, and don’t say you weren’t warned!

PN is in a precarious situation. For the moment it is safe because Umno needs it to maintain a majority to remain in government. But, when interests conflict, the Najib factor interests will dominate and perhaps at PN’s expense. There has been some talk that some PN MPs are planning to join Umno/BN. Maybe, they should think twice, thrice, many more times or they may regret.

PH, too, needs to sever its link with the Umno-led government, which is the MoU it signed with the Sabri government. PH wants to preserve the MoU in order to introduce the anti-hopping bill. In the current political climate, the bill will deter Umno politicians from leaving and that might not be a good idea if the overriding objective is to cut ties to the Najib factor to leave Umno isolated.

An untethered Umno will be unable to form a majority government. Cutting links to Umno will precipitate a general election. By then, however, all the political parties except Umno will be set free from the creeping tentacles of the sleight of hand and can participate in the general elections in their own strengths. The outcomes will be determined by the interplay of the decisions made by politicians, political parties and voters and will be a true reflection of the support of the people.

It is the duty of the leaders to ensure that the voters are free to determine their own destiny. That will save the nation. They must act now to get back to the rule of law according to the constitution.

Will Johor voters set the trend to choose change?

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Seriously, what kind of politicians/political parties use a convicted former prime minister to lure crowds on the campaign trail in the hope of winning votes and describe it as “the people want BN”?!

What kind of former prime minister shows such a blatant and brazen disrespect of the judiciary and snubs the courts which convicted him of abuse of power, criminal breach of trust and money laundering by strutting around engaging in politics on the technicality that his sentencing has been stayed?

Worse still, what kind of a convicted former prime minister thumbs his nose at an official request by the Speaker of the Dewan Rakyat — the highest law-making institution in the country — to attend a Dewan Rakyat session to explain his comments on the 1MDB issue and dismissively explains that he would give a response on another date?

What kind of prime minister is it who is unable to back the Speaker to enforce his authority to discipline the disobedient convicted former prime minister by suspending him or referring him to Parliament’s rights and privileges committee?

What kind of prime minister is it who says nothing of the issue and lets the convicted former prime minister off the hook? The Speaker is able to throw out of the assembly a DAP MP who asks pertinent questions but is unable to stand up to a convicted former prime minister?

What kind of politicians woos the adviser and head of a political party who were facing criminal charges in court to fell a legitimate government with the mandate of the people in the name of the Malay-Muslim cause and never once proved its majority?

What kind of a politician allows himself to be sworn in as prime minister, aided by vested interests, and like the convicted former prime minister, walks around and goes on the campaign trail as if he did no wrong?

What kind of prime minister holds himself ransom to his party leaders who are facing corruption charges in court, absolves the culprit in Azamgate, and says nothing when his party leaders dissolve state assemblies and call for state elections?

What kind of leaders signs memorandums of understanding with the incumbent unelected unconstitutional government for paltry reforms that are yet to be realised only because they are afraid to form honest alliances with other opposition parties because it would mean that one party will have to surrender its party’s leader’s personal ambition to become PM?

What kind of leaders allows themselves to be seen with royals for the photo opportunity of implying that they have the latter’s endorsement once an election is announced? What kind of leaders apparently are so frail of heart that they do not have the conviction of their beliefs and service to the people, and the courage to say an emphatic “No” to lobbying vested interests?

What kind of government leaders make “working visits” to constituencies facing an election to lend support to their candidates? Did these leaders get there on government funds or their own? They justify their actions by spinning a spiel that when they attended the government function they said nothing of politics, but then changed their clothes and demeanour and drove in their private cars to attend the political function. Even if the trip was partly funded by the government, isn’t that an abuse of government resources?

These are some of the major monkey tricks incumbent leaders have and are playing since the Sheraton moves. The point is whether the voters in the Johor state elections buy into the narrative these political players say and play, or can see through it. We will know tomorrow.

In the Umno strongholds — mainly in the rural constituencies — it’s a forgone conclusion that Umno will win. The question is whether they will have a majority and that depends on whether they make an impact in the Malay-majority urban seats where the majority of the Malays are.

Urban Malay voters need to understand that no matter which coalition/political party wins a majority, the basic needs of the B40 group will be taken care of. That aside, the voters need to consider other criteria in choosing their representatives.

The list above simply shows the current calibre of incumbent politicians. But the Johor state elections present Johor voters with an array of choices, including new candidates without the baggage of the past.

Tomorrow, we will know if the majority of urban Malay voters have bought into the spiel the incumbent politicians are mouthing or whether they will choose change — for a corruption-free, service-orientated, constitution-upholding politics.

Urban Malay voters and non-Malay voters need to forget about the disappointments of the past, especially with Pakatan Harapan’s short stint in government. They have to look at the choices before them and see which party or coalition can form suitable alliances that will best take them into a better future.

If they choose well, Malaysia has hope and we can look forward to the next general elections. If they choose the same old, same old, we can resign ourselves to goons in government.

Tomorrow we will know.

Minnows may dominate — if voter turnout is high

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Former Johor Umno chief Mohamad Khaled Nordin claimed today that a dominant Umno in a BN coalition would offer political stability as there would be less bickering among coalition partners.

There may be less bickering simply because Umno would be calling the shots! Coalition partners would have no choice but to go along with Umno unless Umno chooses to accommodate them when it suits their purposes.

Non-Malays would have to be wary of a dominant Umno especially if Umno wins a majority of seats in its traditional strongholds which represent only a minority of the Malays because the majority of Malays are no longer there as they have migrated to the urban areas.

According to the 2020 national census, 75.1% of Malaysia’s population is urban and the remaining 24.9% is rural, which would suggest that the majority of the Malay population has now become urban.

When the reverse was true — when the majority of the Malay population was rural — the state and parliamentary constituencies were delineated in such a way as to give them majority representation. The Malay population distribution has changed due to urban migration but the constituencies have not been redelineated to cater to the change in the Malay population distribution.

As a result, the Malay rural areas are over-represented while the majority of Malays in the urban areas are under-represented. This is the reason why Malay parties can still form a majority on their number of rural seats.

This is also the reason why the Johor state elections are very important in showing if the under-represented Malay majority in the urban areas will come out to vote and choose the party that can best increase their representation and serves their interests.

If Umno returns as the dominant party in the Johor state elections on winning the majority of rural seats, it will be a return to the old Umno dictating politics to appease its over-represented conservative rural minority and it will be old politics all over again.

If however, Umno makes inroads in the urban Malay-majority seats and forms a majority government, there will be tension between rural and urban Malay interests and that would make it as politically unstable as the governments of the last two years unless Umno wins a majority of the urban Malay-majority seats, which is unlikely as many Malay parties are vying for the same seats.

The battle will be in the urban Malay-majority seats — if the urban Malay majority goes out to vote. It will be interesting to see if voter turnout will be high in these seats.

The first hurdle of parties whose candidates are standing for election in these seats is to draw the voters out. The next hurdle is to clearly outline what each party can offer.

After the Sheraton Move and the failures of the past two years, voters may be disenchanted and prefer not to vote. Johor voters need to be told that for the first time in Malaysian history they have a choice to change their destiny.

Pejuang, Muda and Warisan are the new parties they can choose from. They don’t have the baggage that Umno/BN, PKR/Pakatan Harapan and Bersatu/Perikatan Nasional parties come with. If the voters want to start on a clean slate, these are the parties to consider. These parties need to position themselves as such and work hard to engage the voters and present themselves as the best alternative to serve their interests.

The non-Malays, too, have a key role to play in the current political scenario — if they come out to vote. They too must be wooed to vote and not stay at home. Political parties need to clearly present to them what benefits they will gain from voting for them for a new better tomorrow. The parties representing them will have the chance to form a coalition with the Malay-based parties to form a government that truly represents all the people groups in the state.

Khaled who had spoken of a “dominant” Umno in the BN coalition as reported in the media also said that the BN’s approach to Malaysia’s multi-cultural background is “integration, not assimilation”. That may appeal to non-Malays. In practice, however, it may not be encouraged if it upsets Umno’s traditional voters.

The alternative is the new parties. Individually, they may not be dominant but together in a new coalition, the minnows may actually be able to deny Umno the dominant majority.

Towards that end, the new political parties need to work extra hard to convince the voters that they can deliver. Contrary to the pre-election consensus that Johor will follow Malacca in voting for Umno, all the focussed hard work of the new parties may actually pay off!

The most important qualities leaders must have

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Tomorrow is nomination day for the Johor state elections and now is a good time as any to suggest a few qualities I believe candidates standing for elections must have.

The first most important quality they must have is to maintain the sovereignty of the nation/state. They must fully understand the Constitution of Malaysia and that it upholds both parliamentary democracy and constitutional monarchy but that neither influences the other.

Elected political leaders must be acutely aware that their masters are the voters who give them the mandate to lead. They govern on the authority of the mandate of the people and guard that authority without compromising it by putting themselves in a situation where they become beholden to other institutions of authority.

In other words, in a crisis, should they find that they are at a loss as to how to handle it, they should not, in desperation, immediately run to a foreign power like Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates or China or the US or to the Agong and Sultans for help if by doing so they compromise the sovereignty of the nation/state. They can get help — but never at the expense of beholding themselves and the nation to these powerful nations and institutions.

Elected leaders must uphold the sovereignty of the country/state at all costs. They must understand that the federal or state government runs independently and must guard themselves against all interfering influences. The decisions they make must have Parliament’s or the state assembly’s approval first.

Since we are also a constitutional monarchy, elected leaders must understand that the government makes all decisions and the final decisions are presented to the Agong or Sultans who will perform their duties as defined by the constitution. They should not attempt to engage the royals to influence these decisions. Both do not influence the other.

We want leaders who will ensure that they are never held accountable to any authority other than the people. That is the most important characteristic candidates standing for election must have. Such leaders can be trusted to uphold the sovereignty of the state/nation and will not sell or compromise it for money or power.

The second most important quality they must have is knowledge. They must have the mental capacity to understand and learn very fast the modern concepts of governance, transparency and accountability. When issues are discussed in the public discourse, they must be able to quickly recognize the issues that are of concern to the people and respond immediately.

We don’t want leaders like the prime ministers we have had in the past two years who prefer to maintain silence rather than engage the people. Elected representatives must engage the citizens; that’s the only way we know what they are up to.

The third most important characteristic candidates standing for election must have is ability. They should first know what their jobs entail and have the skills to do them. We don’t need leaders who are clueless about what they are supposed to do despite the number of advisers at their disposal. And, we won’t need a bloated Cabinet to get the job done.

If we have able leaders, taxpayers’ money will be put to good use. Such leaders will also know how to make the Cabinet do its job and won’t be wasting time and taxpayers’ money on unnecessary overseas trips while the country is still not out of the woods with regard to the pandemic.

There are many other qualities people may want of our representatives. For me, these three are the most important. I hope those who are nominated tomorrow to stand for election will have the qualities the people want.

What Sabri’s 2020 census bumi figure doesn’t tell

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The recently announced results of the 2020 census require clarification and elaboration in two areas. The first is in the announcement by Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob that the bumiputra population has increased to 69.4% from 67.4% in 2010.

Sabri did not break down the statistic to show the percentage of the Malay population and the non-Malay bumiputra population which is largely made up of ethnic East Malaysians, many of whom are Christians. Neither did he reveal if the increase in the bumiputra population was general or uneven between the two bumiputra groups.

Giving such details will provide a truthful picture of population trends in Malaysia. Beruas MP Ngeh Koo Ham said yesterday as reported in Malaysiakini that the detailed numbers for each ethnic group should be disclosed as it was important for the implementation of government policies.

“The various native groups in Sabah and Sarawak should be classified separately as their needs are different from the Malays in Peninsular Malaysia,” Ngeh said in the report.

“The Malays in the peninsula would like to see sufficient funds allocated for matters related to Islam as they are Muslims. However, the majority of the natives of Sabah and Sarawak are non-Muslims and they would like a fair and proportionate amount of funds to be allocated to matters related to their religious faiths.”

In presenting the details of the 2020 census, Sabri also said that the bumiputeras make up the highest percentage with 69.4 percent, followed by the Chinese (23.2 percent), the Indians (6.7 percent), and others (0.7 percent).

The 2020 census also showed that Malaysia’s population has increased to 32.4 million people, compared to 28.3 million in 2010.

Ngeh also questioned if the 2.6 million non-Malaysians in the country, as stated by the 2020 census, and which he said make up 8.3 percent of the population, was considered as bumiputra. If the “others” category comprises 0.7 percent, how are the 2.6 million non-Malaysians (or 8.3 percent) accounted for?

“If the ethnic group’s composition stated by the premier includes the whole 32.4 million people, then almost all the 2.7 million foreigners are classified as bumiputera, which is clearly unacceptable,” he said.

Ngeh wanted a clarification from the Prime Minister who at that time was on an official visit to Brunei and we are yet to hear of a response from him.

These data that Ngeh wanted clarified are important for the public to know but the PM doesn’t seem too interested in giving the correct picture or is taking his time about it while we are still waiting to know.

Other statistics that are of concern and which have a direct bearing on the current political situation are the rural and urban population figures. The urban population has risen from 70.9 percent in 2010 to 75.1 in 2020 and the rural population has dropped from 29.1 percent in 2010 to 24.9 percent in 2020.

These figures suggest that in both 2010 and now the Malaysian population is urban rather than rural. If this is the case, why are there more rural parliamentary constituencies than urban ones?

This would explain why there are more MPs representing the rural areas than the urban areas and why they can form a majority representing bumiputras but this representation may be a minority and not a majority as they claim to be and why this minority is conservatively rooted in rural ways.

Such a delineation of parliamentary constituencies may have been necessary before the urban migration of rural folks but they no longer apply if the majority of the rural folks have now become urban. Delineating parliamentary constituencies may be necessary now to give the majority of the population in the urban areas more say.

These are issues that a federal government must address but we are yet to see the kind of leadership necessary to get such jobs done at the helm of the Malaysian government in the past two years.

When parliamentary constituencies are delineated to give more representation to the majority urban population, the conservative minority will be unable to dictate politics.

It is extremely urgent that a responsible and competent government that represents the majority is installed which accommodates and serves Malaysia’s changing landscape.

The significance of Hadi’s ‘dialogue’

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PAS president Hadi Awang’s recent “dialogue” with representatives of Afghanistan’s Taliban government raises a very important question: Was it sanctioned by Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob?

If it was, then it raises even more pertinent questions. Has the prime minister recognized the Taliban government? If so, why was there no announcement that Malaysia recognizes the Taliban government?

According to Hadi’s political secretary Syahir Sulaiman, the “dialogue” was arranged by the Foreign Ministry of Qatar upon a request from Hadi’s office and held in Doha during Hadi’s visit to that state last week.

Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah had earlier said that Malaysia was not in a hurry to recognize Afghanistan’s Taliban government and was still awaiting the UN’s decision on the matter.

So, with what authority did Hadi in his official capacity as the Special Envoy to the Middle East, which is a position with ministerial status, conduct the “dialogue”? Because he held the session in his official capacity as a minister in the Malaysian cabinet, it appears as if the Malaysian government recognizes the Taliban government, which is known for torture, discrimination against women and minorities, and a harsh form of Islamic discipline.

Is the Sabri government contradicting itself? One minister says something and another does another? Sabri needs to clarify Malaysia’s stand on recognizing the unelected Taliban government.

In defending Hadi’s action, Syahir had argued that a “dialogue” does not imply recognition since “the whole world, including the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), United Nations (UN), European Union (EU), US and China have been engaging with the Taliban government through multiple channels of dialogue”.

Syahir, however, has failed to mention that the above were directly-involved negotiators in seeking a settlement in the Afghan crisis whereas Malaysia isn’t. Putrajaya was never such a player and certainly does not have the stature of the US or China to dialogue with the Taliban to bring about a resolution.

Hadi’s “dialogue” is clearly a serious breach of protocol and one that Sabri must address. Unless there’s a political motive. With the Johor state elections coming up, Sabri may want to win more votes from the conservative Malay electorate who may be pleased by the government’s efforts at unifying the ummah.

Hadi himself has gone on the offensive and labeled the anti-Taliban sentiments as Islamophobia. If this is politics in view of the Johor elections, it is dangerous politics, using religion to get votes at the expense of good governance.

Not surprisingly, the opposition parties have remained silent on this issue. Again, perhaps, for political advantage. They don’t want to be seen as being anti-Islam and drive the conservative Malay vote away from them.

Hasn’t anyone thought of treating the voters as equals and simply explaining correctly to the voters that this is not an anti-religion issue but one of respecting the stand the country takes in international relations and that that is good governance?

How to achieve political stability …

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Politicians who think politics will ever be calm and stable are dreaming! So, when they make statements claiming that they and their parties represent political stability, is it true or just another effort to justify unconstitutional conduct?

Recently, Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakub, said in response to Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin and PAS president Hadi Awang’s statement that their parties’ support for the federal government was “conditional”, that political stability was important for the country as without it there might be another political turmoil that might affect the economy.

Strange for him to say that when it is obvious that the political climate since he took over the role of premiership has been unstable from Day 1 because Sabri’s party, Umno, has held the threat of pulling out of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government he leads, over his head. Now, Bersatu and PAS are doing the same.

When Umno couldn’t get what it wanted from the federal government, it turned its focus on the states. In Malacca, instead of facing a no-confidence vote in the state assembly, Umno played politics and dissolved the state assembly with the Yang Di-Pertua’s blessing. In Johor, despite a one-seat majority, it dissolved the state assembly and as in Malacca paved the way for state elections.

Is this not political instability? Umno has expressly stated it wants to wipe out Bersih and be the majority government in Johor as in Malacca and now there will be state elections in Johor. If Umno wins in Johor, it is likely that general elections will follow. All this isn’t political instability?

We have been drifting along in political instability since Muhyiddin got himself sworn in as the prime minister but he can’t see it. He thought he had the support of the majority until the Malacca state elections last year when Bersatu won only two seats despite contesting all the seats.

Like Muhyiddin, Bersatu information chief Wan Saiful Wan Jan also claimed that the party’s alliance with PAS had strengthened political stability in the country. It amazes me that the former CEO of the Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs, can not see the political instability that followed since his party president took over as prime minister!

Either these politicians — Umno, Bersatu and PAS — can not recognize what is and has been unfolding before their very eyes as a result of their actions or they are in self-denial; they prefer not to face the reality before them because then they have to admit they are responsible for the current state of political instability.

Bersatu shouts “political stability” to remain in power but claims its purpose is to ensure the welfare of the people — like previous governments didn’t take care of their political base, the Malay majority.

Umno shouts “political stability” in order to rule by itself so that it can do what it likes like it did when it led six decades of the BN government.

These parties promise political stability but the truth is that they will be unable to deliver it because of the intense in-fighting taking place among Malay-majority parties. As long as their position in government is threatened they will do everything by any means — even if it means compromising the constitution — to get what they want. That is the source of the current political instability and all the parties in the current government are guilty of it.

Politics is characteristically always fluid and sometimes volatile. What controls it from exploding and destroying all the good hitherto achieved is having a good grasp of the constitution and complying with constitutional requirements as written and intended in the constitution.

If all these Malay and Muslim-majority politicians practised politics according to the constitution, we would not be drifting in political instability.

In the last two years, they have proven with three changes of prime ministers that they can not deliver political stability. They should stop deluding themselves and others. The only way to bring political stability back is to vote them out and vote in those who understand the constitution and will stick by it.