Tag Archives: Bersatu

Lessons from the Nenggiri by-election

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There are a couple of takeaways from the Nenggiri state by-election. The most important of these is that there are pockets of voters in the PAS-held states of the North who are not die-hard PAS supporters. Given alternatives or a lack of them, they may vote for PAS’ opponents.

The seat was held by Umno since 2004 but was won by Perikatan Nasional (PN) in the state elections last year by a very narrow margin of 810 votes in the green wave that swept across the northern states. The seat was declared vacant because PN’s Bersatu candidate who won it lost his party membership.

With PAS holding sway in the north, the chances of Umno winning back the seat were seemingly slim. But Umno won, and not by any small margin but by a thumping 3,352-vote majority! According to political scientist Bridget Welsh, the main reason for Umno’s win was due to a swing from the youth, women and economically disadvantaged voters. (A Nenggiri balm: Umno’s by-election flip, Malaysiakini.)

Umno must also be credited for its success because it conducted a well-organized campaign where Umno members did considerable leg work which paid off among the swing voters of youth, women and the poor.

This is the first takeaway from the Nenggiri by-election. It is proof that there are peripheral seats in PAS-influenced areas which, with a good fight, can be won by a non-PAS party candidate, including PAS’ partner in PN, Bersatu.

The main reason why Umno was able to maintain the support of the Malay majority for nearly six decades is the promise of funds that is available to them if Umno leads the government.

When Umno lost that majority support to PN in GE15, it was premised on the belief that PN, having formed a Malay-majority government after the Sheraton Move, would continue to form the next government with their support. That did not materialise and Umno now back in government could be seen as being in the position to help the poorer Malay voters who are more dependent on government help.

This is the second takeaway from the Nenggiri buy-election that PN should take note of. PN can not be complacent in the belief that Malay support, especially for PAS and hence, PN, is guaranteed. PN parties have to work hard to keep the peripheral seats that PAS now holds and win new Malay-majority seats.

PN must start work now to develop allies with whom it can face the next general election in the confidence that with Malay support it can and will form the next government. If that confidence is not communicated to the Malay voters, PN will lose more seats.

The third takeaway from the Nenggiri by-election is that Bersatu needs to field its own candidates in those seats where there are segments of Malay voters who have not bought into PAS’ Islamic agenda. Those seats number more than the conservative seats and Bersatu needs to field candidates who can appeal to this segment of voters nationwide.

PN is claiming that money politics played a key role among 2,000 of its supporters in the Nenggiri by-election who were bribed or intimidated, and who didn’t vote or voted for Umno. If this were true, it could have only happened if these voters lost confidence in Bersatu. Bersatu needs to start restoring the confidence of its members.

There were some reports which claimed that some Bersatu members, unhappy with the leadership, revolted by not campaigning or voting. That’s the most important reason for Bersatu to resolve its leadership issues according to what the members want.

If PN wants to form the next government, it must not make the mistakes it made in the Nenggiri by-elections and start acting proactively now to build up its membership and develop allies and a larger grassroots base.

Bersatu is the threat to Umno, so buck up

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Opposition coalition Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) anchor party, Bersatu, has suffered a number of blows in recent months. Though its support rose in recent by-elections it did not win any new seat. Then there is the talk that in a couple of constituencies its members have left in the hundreds.

The biggest hit, however, was when the Speaker of the Dewan Rakyat refused to declare the seats of six rogue members who lost their party memberships as vacant. That was hard to accept because if they were declared vacant, by-elections would have been called and it would have given Bersatu a chance to gauge its support in these constituencies and, most importantly, whether that that support has increased.

If there were by-elections, and support for Bersatu had gone up, that would have been a major embarrassment to Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s unity government as it would have meant that the six rogue Bersatu members had stood up in the Dewan Rakyat and pledged allegiance to the PM without the support of their voters. The Speaker’s decision effectively spared the incumbent government of that embarrassment.

This episode, however, shows that the government is worried about the increasing support for Bersatu.

Although a number of former Umno members have joined Bersatu’s main PN partner PAS rather than Bersatu, it is another indication that the source of the government coalition’s worry is Bersatu rather than PAS.

On the surface of it, it would seem that PAS is the preferred party to join instead of Bersatu. That may be true in Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu and in some other constituencies in the rest of Peninsular Malaysia where PAS has some influence.

It is, however, a foregone conclusion that in these states, the majority of Malay support is for PAS. Umno, the only Malay-based party in the coalition government, has no illusions that it can win back that support from PAS.

Even in the coming state by-election in Nenggiri, while Umno is putting up a spirited campaign against Bersatu’s candidate, it is aware that with PAS backing Bersatu it is an uphill battle to win the seat. They only want to test to see if any support is swinging back to Umno.

Even if Umno loses the seat it would not be a great loss because it is a PAS-influenced seat. Unable to beat it in the northern states, Umno may even be willing to partner with PAS if the latter is willing.

In the rest of Peninsular Malaysia, however, the battle for the Malay vote is not between Umno and PAS but between Umno and Bersatu.

Umno’s inclusion in the coalition government is to give it the advantage of incumbency to strengthen the party. In GE15, Umno won 26 seats against Bersatu’s 25 which is a close call. With PN steadily increasing its vote share in every by-election and state election the seats may tip in Bersatu’s favour and Umno will end up the loser.

That is a possibility Umno, and, hence the coalition government, will not want to see happening until the next general elections when they will have no choice but to face reality.

Bersatu thus needs to understand that Umno and the incumbent coalition government will do everything in its power to prevent Bersatu from proving its growing Malay support base and only allow it in the next general election.

The party must do everything it can now to counter these efforts. It needs to be ready now not just in the next general elections. In the event there are by-elections it must have the confidence to field its own candidates and not rely on PAS.

In getting ready to win, Bersatu needs to consider the following:

1. It must resolve its leadership problems. It need not follow party president Muhyiddin Yassin’s formula where he remains as president and Hamzah Zainuddin becomes the deputy president. They should stand for elections and whoever the party members nominate should also stand for elections.

Elected leaders mean they have grassroots support and that provides stability.

2. Bersatu needs to change its legal advisers and hire lawyers who have a broader, contextual and deeper understanding of the law to advise them so that the party can take on the government every time it acts outside of the parameters granted by the federal constitution.

The party must be seen as being committed to upholding the federal constitution at all costs. If it bravely stands up for the constitution, without doubt, the people will back it.

3. The party, while sticking to its Malay-majority agenda, must make it apparent that it also includes and respects the rights of minorities.

Doing the above will build up its confidence to show itself as competent, constitutional and grassroots-centred and that may attract more capable leaders and supporters to join it .

The Speaker’s word has consequences

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The Speaker of the Dewan Rakyat’s declaration that Bersatu’s six rogue MPs, who went against the party’s directive to affirm their loyalty to the party, get to keep their seats, raised a storm of protests because it has created a couple of problems.

As a result of the Anti-Hopping Law (AHL) passed in 2022, Article 49A was amended to read: Clause (1) of the new Article 49A provides, inter alia, that a member of the Dewan Rakyat (‘MP’) shall cease to be a member of that House and his seat shall become vacant if the MP:

(a) having been elected to the Dewan Rakyat as a member of a political party, resigns as, or ceases to be, a member of that political party; or

(b) having been elected to the Dewan Rakyat otherwise than as a member of a political party (i.e. an independent candidate), joins a political party as a member.

Article 49A also states that an expelled MP would keep his seat. In the case of the Bersatu 6, they were not expelled. Under the party’s amended rules, Bersatu sent a directive to all its MPs to pledge their loyalty to the party and abide by party decisions. They defied the directive and automatically lost their membership.

Bersatu’s amended law is similar to the DAP’s and Umno’s. These parties amended the laws to prevent their MPs from joining another party.

Speaker Johari Abdul’s justification was that it went against the rights of MPs to free speech.

The consequences of the Speaker’s decision are worrying and it is no wonder that they evoked such angry protests.

Firstly, when a party according to the law terminates an MP’s party membership, can the Speaker overrule it? Secondly, can the Speaker by his decision make a law inoperative? By saying that the Bersatu 6 can keep their seats — though not with the party but elsewhere — isn’t it going against the AHL which clearly states that if MPs cease to be members of the party on whose platform they won the seats, they can’t be MPs and their seats become vacant? How then can the AHL be applied to rebelling MPs? What’s the use of the AHL?

Does the Speaker have the authority to do either? These are some of the issues that the courts will now have to clarify.

The fear is that the Speaker’s decision nullifies the AHL as MPs now can go against party lines and still be MPs and keep their seats. Which suggests that MPs now can skip, hop, jump and leapfrog to join other parties and change the numbers in a coalition.

More than any MP, shouldn’t the Speaker make decisions that clearly uphold the rule of law in an assembly of lawmakers? While, no doubt, the Speaker and, likewise a PM or a king, has discretionary powers shouldn’t those powers be confined within the ambit of the law and executed in the spirit and intent of the law? Anything else is abuse of position.

The question MPs need to ask is not whether the Speaker has discretionary powers but whether those discretionary powers were used according to the rule of law.

If they weren’t, the MPs should find out from their constituents how they are to represent them in the Dewan Rakyat and take every step needed to restore the rule of law in the Dewan Rakyat.

In addition, it appear as if the Speaker made a decision to favour the incumbent government in maintaining a two-thirds majority — and failed to show his neutrality. The loss of the Bersatu 6’s seats will deprive Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s government of a two-thirds majority which he needs to amend laws. This is a government without the mandate of the people but in power and therefore may introduce laws not mandated by the people.

MPs need to be wary of any attempt to introduce laws never raised by the people which may be sneakily sprung upon the MPs and passed without debate because the MPs were taken by surprise.

Now, more than ever, MPs need to be on guard because, by a twist of fate, as a result of Johari’s decision, they are free to vote according to their conscience and hold themselves accountable to their constituents.

Bersatu has said it will take the issue to court. While it goes to court, MPs should not be waiting twiddling thumbs. What the Speaker has done is a very serious issue. The law empowers MPs to act in the interests of the people they represent and they should take decisive action to ensure that the Dewan Rakyat upholds the rule of law.

I have only briefly explained the issues here. Malaysiakini carried a number of good articles that covers all the issues regarding Johari’s decision today (July 12, 2024). It is good for us Malaysians to know what these issues are so that we are not taken for a ride.

Bersatu needs to widen its target voter base

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If the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition thought that it could win a mixed seat with a dominant Malay population with only a Malay majority, the Kuala Kubu Baharu state seat by-elections would have put paid that strategy — hopefully!

The PN candidate, Khairul Azhari Saut, lost the seat by 3,869 votes to the winning candidate, DAP’s Pang Sock Tao, who got 14,000 votes. No doubt that the 3,869-vote majority which was less than the 4,119-vote majority that the DAP won for its Pakatan Harapan coalition in the 2022 state elections shows that PN got more votes this time around despite a lower voter turnout of 61.5% from the previous 69%.

This, however, was insufficient to give PN the victory it wanted. PN maintained its core support but it is clear that it failed to win over the support not only of the non-Malays, but the Malays who stayed home, with its race and religion rhetoric and identity politics.

PN needs to accept the fact its conservative support so far has only benefited PAS by giving it control of the four northern states. It will not be replicated in the increasingly urban states going south. In Perak, Pahang, Selangor, Negri Sembilan, Malacca and Johor the majority of the voters are urbanites and they are mainly mixed communities as in KKB.

Therefore, PN has to craft a message that appeals to urbanites in general, without excluding any one community. The coalition should not wait for the next general elections to apply such a strategy to appeal to a cross-section of urban communities.

PN must start now to speak on behalf of urbanites without estranging its core conservative support. In every by-election to come, PN needs to develop a well-thought through manifesto that clearly spells out what it would do for the people should it win at the state and federal levels.

By now, all political parties in this country should understand that no party can win with only a one-race majority. It is not impossible but with a fragmented Malay majority, it is unlikely. The winning formula is to target the ethnic rural communities and a cross-section of urban communities. PN — more than any other coalition — has the advantage of the former; it needs to now focus on the latter.

In KKB, Chinese support for PH remained strong as expected since it is a DAP stronghold and was the main reason why PH kept the seat. Chinese voters are still hopeful that the unity government led by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will deliver on reforms. That, however, may change in the near future.

In the days to come, it will become increasingly apparent that the Anwar administration is NOT accountable to the people. When that happens, it is the urbanites who will see the reason to shift their support and the party that will be most affected by it will be the DAP. That’s my prediction.

When and if that happens, MCA, the other Chinese-based party, stands to gain if it plays its cards wisely. MIC, the Indian-based party, will also benefit from a loosening of non-Malay support for PH parties. The Indians, however, have many parties to turn to and may not be able to provide a cohesive block of votes to the Opposition.

It will be interesting to see in which direction urban Malay sentiments will be directed. If they are sufficiently disgruntled by the way Anwar is leading — or not leading — the country, they may rise up to support the Opposition.

PN, now in the Opposition, however, must be prepared for such an eventuality and PN party Bersatu must take the lead to act proactively to give the disgruntled mostly urban Malays, Chinese, Indians and other non-Malays a compelling alternative to join it.

Bersatu needs to break away from hiding behind PAS’ narrow mono-ethnic perspective to encompass a Malaysian wide perspective without sacrificing its core Malay-Muslim base.

If it doesn’t, Bersatu will be unable to establish its own core support base and lead the PN to offer a confident challenge to PH’s multi-cultural front.

Events are going to occur that will give Bersatu the opportunities to appeal to a cross-section of urban communities.

Already Bersatu is taking steps to rein in its six errant MPs and assemblyman who announced their support for Anwar. If they don’t fall in line with their party, they may be expelled from the party and by-elections will follow. These by-elections will be a testing ground for Bersatu to prove itself as a viable alternative.

But, Bersatu has to start laying the foundation for success now in anticipation of the opportunities it is going to have in the immediate future.

Time for Bersatu to prove it’s a worthy choice

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The way Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim managed or failed to manage the Allah word on socks and heel issues should have given the Opposition, namely Perikatan Nasional (PN), a very good reason to demand for his resignation.

That didn’t happen. Yet, PN’s reaction is not unexpected. PN commendably refrained from taking political mileage from the earlier mentioned two issues and stayed above the fray.

There could be a couple of reasons for PN’s inaction. Firstly, responsibly, it didn’t want to worsen the situation and showed remarkable calm in not agitating its members to react.

Secondly, PN perhaps knows with the Memorandum of Understanding that prevents parties from voting against Anwar, it would be difficult to muster a convincing majority to seek the resignation of the PM.

Getting a convincing majority must become PN’s primary objective. There are two strategies it can employ to achieve this objective. Firstly, PN must demonstrate a strong and fearless leadership in complying with the federal constitution, and, secondly, it must develop strategies to attract the moderate Malays and non-Malays to win by-elections.

PN’s lacklustre performance particularly on constitutional issues in debates in the Dewan Rakyat will give no MP contemplating a switch to another party a convincing reason to join PN because the MP will have no confidence that PN will back him/her on the strength of constitutional correctness.

Even in the debates on an issue very close to the hearts of people as the amendments to the Citizenship bill, PN MPs had little to contribute. The protests came largely from the government bench and from mostly its supporters.

If PN wants to form a government but does not know the federal constitution adequately to know how to defend itself according to the correct interpretations of the federal constitution, it will fail to win the confidence of the people — and the MPs — and, consequently, their support.

PN MPs were also silent in the debate on the amendments to the Police Act 1967, which included a new clause which makes the Yang di-Pertuan Agong the honorary commissioner-in-chief of the Royal Malaysia Police.

The new clause was not touched during the debate on the bill. How can the king be debated? No MP in his/her right mind will debate on the king. The constitution does not allow it. So what was the rationale of the government to introduce a clause for debate when our laws do not allow it?

Such inconsistencies should be immediately pointed out to show the lack of proper understanding of the constitution in the introduction of an amendment that should not have been tabled in the first place. The king is king of all. Why should he be demoted to a position as honorary commissioner-in-chief of the police? The king can’t be debated but the government’s intention can be questioned.

It is very likely that PN MPs kept silent because it involves the king. But MPs need to understand that it is not the king who is being questioned but the government.

When it comes to the king, MPs may not even want to be seen as expressing a negative reaction for fear of losing his support in the event they need to form a government mid-term. That simply reveals the ignorance of the MPs of the federal constitution and their lack of confidence as a result of it.

The federal constitution is explicit: The king appoints the MP who has the support of the majority of the MPs. If they have a majority, MPs must be confident of their constitutional right to form a government. If the king goes against it, the king is acting unconstitutionally and the MPs must know what to do to act constitutionally.

The king’s hand in the appointment of the prime minister can only be an issue if the MPs let him. Knowing that, MPs, and, especially PN MPs, must learn to confidently act constitutionally.

PN’s success so far has been on the back of its component partner PAS’ groundswell of support. PAS’ support comes mostly from the conservative segment of the Malay-Muslim population. It won four states in the north in the 2022 general election.

While it helped PN win more seats, it was unable to help PN form the state governments in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan. According to political analysts the main reason for this is that PAS’ support had plateaued out.

If PN is going to depend on PAS to deliver the votes in the future, PN is going to be disappointed. PN’s other component partner, Bersatu, must build itself up by reaching the less conservative segments of the Malay population and non-Malays. These segments include the urban Malays who may reject PAS as too conservative and outdated.

So, in the coming by-elections, it is imperative that PN fields Bersatu candidates not PAS candidates. This should be tested in the May 11 by-election in Kuala Kubu Baharu (KKB).

With current sentiments for the Pakatan Harapan (PH)-led unity government at an increasingly descending low, a Bersatu candidate who can appeal to both Malay and non-Malay voters will have a high chance of tipping the swing votes in PN’s favour. Voters are increasingly disgruntled with the current administration. They will give their votes to better alternatives.

Now is the time to prove that Bersatu is a worthy choice. If Bersatu wins KKB, it will be a very strong indication that the voters are turning away from PH, which means the party’s success in KKB may be repeated in subsequent by-elections.

Bersatu must show its leadership qualities and be able to appeal to a broader cross-section of voters if it wants to lead a government of the people for the people.

Bersatu needs to put nation first

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One day after Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin resigned and then retracted his resignation, Bukit Gantang MP Syed Abu Hussin Hafiz Syed Abdul Fasal stood up in the Dewan Rakyat and declared his support for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.

Earlier, the same MP had stood up and said he would support Anwar if he were given RM50 million. This time, however, he made no mention of his RM50 million demand and declared support without any conditions.

No one knows yet if the constituency development funds (CDF) were immediately released to him. But the four MPs who declared their support for the PM previously are said to have received their CDFs. Why Anwar wants to deprive the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN) of CDFs — which is the people’s right to have — is hard to fathom except that it demonstrates his abandonment of democratic principles.

Whatever his reasons, it is leverage he is using to get PN’s obeyance and Muhyiddin risks losing more PN MPs if he is one of the reasons why his MPs are one by one declaring their support for Anwar.

Muhyiddin may have realised that he was losing support and decided to resign to test that support. A howl of protest from the floor at Bersatu’s annual general meeting last Friday and at his wife’s behest made him change his mind. These factors, however, do not indicate the exact level of support for him unless he stands for election.

The party supreme council also rejected his resignation and Muhyiddin in his closing speech said he would defend his position at the party elections next year.

This simply means Anwar’s unity government is now secure as PN may ease up on any effort to bring about a change in government until next year’s party election. As long as Muhyiddin continues to helm Bersatu, Anwar’s government is not under threat. But a change of party president or president-designate would be a threat.

The concern to urge Muhyiddin to reconsider his decision might have been due to the fear that without any “big name” in Bersatu, PN would lose its pull factor. Political analysts also said that Muhyuiddin had retracted his resignation to avoid infighting.

Yet, despite Muhyiddin bearing the “big name” label, and an impressive win in last November’s general elections, he was unable to win Selangor and Negri Sembilan in the state elections in August and lost all the subsequent by-elections in constituencies south of the four PAS-held states up north, namely Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.

Although PN won more votes, it lost the seats mainly because of over-reliance on PAS which only has a limited appeal to moderate Malays and non-Malays who combined form the majority in the states south of the PAS-ruled northern states.

The question to ask is whether Muhyiddin can appeal to this still undecided group of voters. If he can’t, he should resign and let a new crop of leaders who do not rely on PAS and are more confident of winning the support of this large untapped reserve of voters, to lead the party.

Another question to ask is whether Muhyiddin is a strong factor in attracting MPs, especially in Umno, to join it by triggering by-elections. Apparently, so far, no MP has left Umno for Bersatu after Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi purged the party of dissidents. They have joined PAS but not Bersatu.

Umno secretary-general Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki said in a recent interview that MPs in Barisan Nasional of which Umno is the lead party would not leave the coalition as they may face a claim of RM100 million.

With a new Bersatu leadership, however, Umno MPs may see in it a more likely possibility of forming a government and may be willing to take the risk and resign en masse triggering simultaneous by-elections and face the possibility of a fine in court. By that time a new government may be formed and the courts may dismiss the case describing it as purely academic.

If Umno MPs choose not to leave the party, they face the near-certainty of losing their seats in the next elections because Umno has lost credibility with its support base.

The fear that Muhyiddin’s resignation would lead to infighting can be easily allayed if Muhyiddin himself undertakes the responsibility of overseeing the transition to a leadership of not just the president but a president and a team solidly backing him.

Such a team will be a clear threat to the unity government because people will see in it an inherent capability to form a government that is Malay-majority based and inclusive of other Malaysian communities.

Bersatu will thus be seen as a truly national party and deserving to form a government. That commitment to put the nation ahead as a Malay-majority-led government encompassing all Malaysian communities rather than just a Malay-majority-led coalition must become Bersatu’s overriding strategy. It is Bersatu rather than PAS that can take the initiative to achieve it.

The Malays voted for PN on the basis that it would form a government. Each day PN fails to realise this objective, disillusionment will set in as evidenced by the PN MPs who declared support for Anwar and the coalition risks losing its voters.

It is, therefore, imperative that Muhyiddin undertakes the transition to a new leadership now. The argument that a party needs a “big name” is not true. Parties can’t have big names all the time. Barack Obama, Joe Biden and Rishi Sunak were not big names in their parties. So, how did they become presidents and a prime minister? They had — and have — very good teams.

There are people in Bersatu who together can form a good team. Bersatu, more than PAS or Umno or PKR, has candidates who can form a capable team to lead the nation. Muhyiddin should capitalise on it and get all the factions to come together in an alliance where each faction’s leader takes turns to be the party president with all the factions joining forces to back him.

When that happens, Bersatu will be seen as getting its act together and it may attract more MPs to join it and more voters to support it.

The Bersatu president may become the next prime minister but he needs a strong team to back him. With a strong team behind him, he will be able to move forward and stand up for the sovereignty of the nation. He and his team will get their job done and in a crisis of a conflict of interests have the confidence to uphold the federal constitution. That’s the kind of leader the people will trust and respect.

The way forward is to get a strong team for the good of the nation. Good luck, Bersatu.

Pelangai by-election — PN’s missed chance

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The political climate was ripe for Perikatan Nasional (PN) to win the Pelangai state by-election last Saturday, but the coalition didn’t. Despite discontent over Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s dismissal not amounting to an acquittal (DNAA) and the lack of reforms and economic upliftment under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s administration, PN lost.

It is, no doubt, to PN’s credit that it lost by a smaller majority of 2,949 compared to the 4,048 majority the Umno candidate, Johari Harun, got in the general election last November. The state by-election was called following Johari’s death in the Elmina plane crash in August.

In a small state constituency such as Pelangai with only 16,456 eligible voters and which is an Umno stronghold, a 3,000-vote loss may seem small. Why then was PN unable to trigger a dramatic swing of that small number to its side and win?

This is the question PN needs to ask and examine the factors that caused their defeat when the political environment was conducive to their win.

Two factors come to mind. Firstly, PN read the ground incorrectly. It read the ground correctly in the six-state elections in August and fielded a majority of PAS candidates in the north where it won three states. But, south of these states, fielding PAS candidates did not produce the desired results.

In the southern states of Selangor and Negeri Sembilan and in Pelangai, it is apparent that Malay voters, particularly Umno voters, do not regard PAS candidates in the same way the conservative north does.

It is also apparent that these same Malay voters want an alternative choice to Umno as evidenced by the fact that an increasing number is choosing PN but there are still many who rather vote for the devil they know than the deep blue sea.

PN needs to address what is withholding the latter from swinging to its side.

Secondly, if PN had fielded a Bersatu candidate in Pelangai, would the results have been different?

As long as PN keeps fielding PAS candidates to ride on the green wave which clearly does not exist in the southern states, it is sending the message that PN will be a PAS-dominant coalition. That is a turn-off to non-Malay voters and many Malay voters.

In the current political climate, where disillusionment with the ruling unity coalition is considerably high and rising as each passing day reveals the behind-the-scenes political hanky-panky going on to keep the unity coalition in government, a PAS-dominant PN may be a reluctant alternative.

Voters may have been open to voting for the PAS candidate in Pelangai. But on the eve of the elections, the PAS-led Terengganu government pulled out its gymnasts from participating in Sukma 2024 on the grounds that their outfits were not Syariah-compliant. At the same time, Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin announced that if PN wins Pelangai and triggers a switch of assemblypersons to its side to form the next government, PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man would be the next menteri besar of Pahang.

Both these announcements would have spooked not just the non-Malays but the Malays themselves who would have an idea as to what to expect should PAS win. That would have been enough to change their mind about voting for the PAS candidate.

Voters, including Malay voters, are not that taken up by PAS. It was apparent in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan. PN needs to ask itself if fielding PAS candidates rather than Bersatu candidates is working in its favour or against it. It is certainly working in favour of Umno because Umno is keeping its seats.

A PAS-dominant PN is not delivering the expected votes in the southern states. But a Bersatu-dominant PN might. A Bersatu-dominant PN will show that PAS’ extreme ways will be held in check and that minority interests will not be suppressed by religious domination and that would have a greater appeal to both the reluctant Malays and non-Malays.

Bersatu needs to start building itself up and fielding capable, people-serving and constitutionally-aware candidates in subsequent elections, especially in the non-PAS-ruled states. They should talk about how they would better the incumbent unity government in terms of policies for Malays and non-Malays and offer effective action plans that will not sideline any community in Malaysia.

Bersatu rather than PAS can demonstrate that PN is a coalition for all Malaysians and that it would not sacrifice non-Malay interests for the sake of a Malay-majority government. As a Malay-majority coalition, if it shows itself inclusive of non-Malay interests, it would have a wider appeal and in that confidence, it should field a Bersatu candidate in the next election should such an opportunity arise.

The results might be the very turnaround PN is seeking. PN won’t know for sure until this strategy is tested.

Why Umno still stands today

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It can be easily concluded from the exposés by Umno politicians of their leaders that their party, Umno, is heading towards self-destruction. That may happen in the future but unlikely in the imminent future such as in the coming general election.

The point to note is that it is not the leaders who determine Umno’s political standing. Leaders come and go but it is the supporters who ensure that whoever stands representing Umno in their constituency gets voted in to represent them in government.

Since Merdeka, Malay voters in the traditional rural heartland have been ingrained with the belief that Umno is the only Malay party that represents them and that their support ensures Malay dominance in government. That thinking has not changed and until it is challenged, the rural vote is expected to go to Umno despite the fact that its leaders are facing criminal charges in court.

If Umno politicians are honourable and rise up to the trust their voters unquestioningly place in them, they will hold party elections and change the top leadership. If they can’t solve party issues, how then can they govern a nation and solve national issues?

The hope is that rural voters will be able to see that their leaders aren’t acting on behalf of their supporters but for their own interests. If they can see it, then, there’s a good chance that they may not vote for Umno.

The only way to make them see the truth before their eyes in order to defeat Umno is for other Malay parties to contest the same seats Umno contests and present an alternative to Umno.

The only parties that can do that are Bersatu, Pejuang and Warisan. If past elections are anything to go by, Bersatu seems to have lost support and the small parties, Pejuang and Warisan, remain untested.

Yet, that is the only way to defeat Umno — put another Malay candidate against the Umno candidate and go on an anti-corruption campaign that the voters can understand and relate with, together with their nasi periok issues.

This is Pejuang’s strategy. If it works, it may succeed in swinging some seats away from Umno as Bersatu under former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad succeeded in swinging about 10% of the rural Malay vote to Pakatan Harapan (PH) and enabled it to form the first PH government.

If the PH-government was short-lived, the underlying factor was its inability to hold on to the 10% Malay swing vote. It went back to Umno because Umno politicians went to town claiming that the PH government was dominated by non-Malays — a sufficient argument to spook the Malay voter!

Opposition parties understand this but their supporters may not. Opposition candidates may need to explain the realities of Malay politics to their constituents so that there is give and take between Malay and non-Malay parties rather than the typical confrontational standoff.

Malay-based opposition parties like PKR and Amanah could stand in the Malay rural seats if they are able to reach the Malay voter base but if they go on a campaign of good governance and reforms it will fall on deaf ears! The rural Malay voter wants to know if his/her nasi periok issues take priority.

There is, however, one particular demographic that has been largely overlooked — the Malay urban voters who, according to the 2020 census, are a majority and underrepresented in Parliament. PKR and Amanah, perhaps, need to target this voter base and win them over.

It’s a tough task but not impossible to achieve.

If opposition parties don’t change their strategies and convincingly reach out to Malay voters, the trend to vote for Umno will continue.

Capitol riot, PN leaders and the rule of law

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The riot at the US Capitol when President Donald Trump’s supporters breached security and entered the building has besmirched the reputation of western democracies which have always prided themselves on their non-violent adherence to the rule of law — no doubt. Yet, despite the initial chaos and melee, eventually, the rule of law was restored.

The supporters were egged on by Trump to gather at the rally as he made unsubstantiated claims that the election was stolen from him although he had lost both the popular and electoral votes. The rally was meant to be a last-ditch effort to prevent Democratic candidate Joe Biden from being confirmed as the presidential election winner by the US Congress.

At some time during the rally, the crowd surged and pushed past the security officers who retreated, followed by the crowd who entered the building. One person was shot and killed and three others died of medical emergencies during the seige.

It was mayhem but the leaders didn’t fail the nation nor the democratic processed. The election was held, the votes were counted and recounted and congressmen met at the Capitol to confirm President-elect Biden as the winner. And when the siege happened, the National Guard was called, the Capitol building was secured, and a number of Democrats started calling for Trump to resign. A day later several Republicans in Trump’s own staff handed in their resignation. And Trump finally announced he would ensure a smooth and orderly transition of power to Biden. The rule of law upheld.

A democratic tradition does not mean that everything will go by the book. People being human will do all sorts of things but good leaders — not necessarily great leaders — are those who will adhere to the rule of law. In the Capitol siege, in the end, there was resolution because the leaders, including Trump, followed the rule of law. And political stability was restored.

Here in Malaysia, we have Sheraton Moves, Sabah moves, dismissal of all 46 corruption charges against a former chief minister, failure to face a no-confidence vote in Parliament, sacking of an elected Speaker, the appointment of an unelected Speaker, vote-buying, MP-buying …  Where on earth is the rule of law?

The Prihatin Nasional (PN) claims to be a caring coalition but it does what it likes and calls it the new normal. What we are seeing in the PN is simply a law unto themselves.

Look at its coalition partner Umno who has been threatening to leave the PN since the Sabah elections when they didn’t get the Sabah chief minister’s post. It had on two occasions in the past, working with Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) president Anwar Ibrahim, threatened to pull out of PN but it never materialised. Now it plans to discuss the cutting of ties with Bersatu, the small party which insists on leading the PN government, at its general assembly on Jan 31.

Will it materialise or, like always, at crunch time, they quietly back out after kicking up a fuss and creating a storm of hot air? Bersatu president and Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin will maintain a strategic silence and wait to see if it actually happens. If it doesn’t happen, he escapes by the skin of his teeth!

Maybe, he knows what I suspect, that Umno will not carry through its intention. He is willing to risk instability in order to remain in power. That’s all PN leaders want — power. But how they wield is beside the point.

Take Umno secretary-general Ahmad Maslan who has publicly declared that the reason for his party’s gripe with Bersatu is due to the latter’s “cruelty” in continuing with the corruption cases involving Umno members. Maslan and Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and Umno adviser and former prime minister Najib Razak are among a number of Umno members facing criminal charges in court.

“Cruelty?” Don’t only little boys cry “cruelty”, “unkind”, “you’re hurting us” when disciplined and try to weasel their way out of facing the consequences of their actions? Maslan is so wounded that he doesn’t realise he is suggesting executive interference? Bersatu is to be blamed because it invited this party lead by people facing court cases to join the PN. Where on earth is the rule of law? That was sacrificed for the sake of political expediency.

The actions of Bersatu ministers are also suspect. The appointed Speaker refuses to exercise the independence afforded to him under the law to decide on a no-confidence vote unless he gets a directive from the minister. Just recently, former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s party, Pejuang’s, and former minister Syed Saddiq’s Malaysian United Democratic Alliance’s (Muda) applications to be registered as political parties were rejected.

Tun said at a press conference that the Registrar of Societies said that Pejuang’s application was in order but it had to be referred to the minister, the Home Minister in this case.

Is this the rule of law? Any Malaysian’s application for registration of a society or party must be approved if it’s in order. A minister can’t reject it for whatever reasons especially when the reasons are not given. That’s denying citizens our right of association.

We want the rule of law, not leaders who are a law to themselves. Such leaders should never be allowed to govern.

The Opposition needs to take up the cry for the rule of law. They are being too quiet. There should be loud demands for the PN government’s resignation. And, responsible ministers in PN’s government must resign on their own volition. They need to put the nation first.

Learn from the US experience.

The only option left

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Two things are unlikely to happen in the current political scenario. Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin will not step down and Umno will not quit the Perihatin Nasional (PN) government no matter what.

Muhyiddin won’t resign because its coalition partner Umno will position itself for a comeback and his party Bersatu will have to take a back seat. He won’t want that to happen. Umno, no matter how recklessly destabilising its blustering bullying gets, won’t quit the PN because it’s trying to make a comeback through the backdoor.

Both need to be in the government to have access to funds to put in the hands of the B40 group who form the backbone of the support for both parties. Without funds, support for these parties is not guaranteed.

So, the PN coalition will remain but consider at what future costs. The the covid19 pandemic will be managed, thanks to our excellent Health Director-General Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah, with or without the PN government. The sudden spike in cases is being used as an excuse to resort to drastic measures to control an uncontrollable Umno and that makes the PN government a dangerous government because it has demonstrated its willingness to rely on extreme measures to control a situation it can’t manage.

So, will it do the same when people start fighting for dwindling resources?  The economy is going to get worse because of the pandemic. Businesses are downsizing or closing down; people are losing jobs. Government income from taxes will be greatly reduced and with depleting resources the Prime Minister will have less funds to put cash in the hands of the B40 group. More people will be fighting for limited resources and if one group is favoured over the rest, the strain on the people will be greater and who knows how it will explode? If the PN government can not manage the covid 19 third wave peacefully can it manage economically-fuelled racial tensions in the future without relying on extreme action? That’s yet to be seen but are we going to wait until that happens when it might be too late?

There is an option now that is yet to be considered seriously. Restore the GE14 mandate of the people in its entirety, which is a Pakatan Harapan (PH) government composing PKR, DAP, Amamah and Bersatu and its splinter party Pejuang and Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman and his Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda) party with former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad as the Prime Minister-designate and with Gabungan Parti Sarawak and Sabah Warisan Parti  in tow as PH-friendly.

I know PH parties are moving on with alternative arrangements but it must respect the mandate of the people in the GE14 and seek to restore the coalition and its composition as elected by the people. Any combination outside of the original PH coalition will not work. Strife and political instability will continue and it will get worse.

To arrest these twin issues which are causing undue strain on the people, the unelected PN government must be made to face the due processes of parliamentary democracy. No elected MP must tolerate an unelected government and must take steps to restore the mandate of the people. But, how?

My suggestion is the GE14 PH original coalition. This is the only choice of a coalition left. Send out feelers to recoup. The parties concerned must be willing to set aside personal feelings for the good of the nation. Tun, Muhyiddin, Anwar, Azmin, eat humble pie and work together.

Sit together and have a pow wow. Thrash out the outstanding issues but with professional courtesy without shouting at each other, especially to Tun. It’s not in our culture, whether Indian, Malay, Chinese or ethnic Sabahan or Sarawakian to be rude to our elders. Maintain professionalism but talk and iron things out, personal feelings aside.

If the PN government is defeated by a vote of no confidence in the Dewan Rakyat next week, it will make it easier for PH to form a majority coalition if it approaches Muhyiddin to join it again. If the no-confidence vote is not called then the MPs vote of PN’s Budget must show respect for the people’s mandate. It would be a betrayal of the people’s  trust and a grossly irresponsible act if elected MPs pass a Budget and put taxpayers’ money in the hands of a government these taxpayers didn’t elect.

If the Budget is rejected, Muhyiddin has to resign and again, PH, as the next coalition with a majority should reach out to Bersatu to join it. Umno and PAS will go back to the Opposition but individual members are free to join PH parties.

Should this suggestion work out and Tun returns as PM — maximum until the next election — I hope there will be ministers in the Cabinet who will advise him NOT to sound like US President Donald Trump in his comments on foreign affairs or race issues. With regard to his latest outbursts at French President Emmanuel Macron, let him know that belligerent bravado does not help the Muslim world; respectful engagement does.

My suggestion of reuniting the GE14 PH coalition is put forward as a solution to continuing political instability and future strife. It is the only workable solution left, in my opinion, and, perhaps, the only solution.