If the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition thought that it could win a mixed seat with a dominant Malay population with only a Malay majority, the Kuala Kubu Baharu state seat by-elections would have put paid that strategy — hopefully!
The PN candidate, Khairul Azhari Saut, lost the seat by 3,869 votes to the winning candidate, DAP’s Pang Sock Tao, who got 14,000 votes. No doubt that the 3,869-vote majority which was less than the 4,119-vote majority that the DAP won for its Pakatan Harapan coalition in the 2022 state elections shows that PN got more votes this time around despite a lower voter turnout of 61.5% from the previous 69%.
This, however, was insufficient to give PN the victory it wanted. PN maintained its core support but it is clear that it failed to win over the support not only of the non-Malays, but the Malays who stayed home, with its race and religion rhetoric and identity politics.
PN needs to accept the fact its conservative support so far has only benefited PAS by giving it control of the four northern states. It will not be replicated in the increasingly urban states going south. In Perak, Pahang, Selangor, Negri Sembilan, Malacca and Johor the majority of the voters are urbanites and they are mainly mixed communities as in KKB.
Therefore, PN has to craft a message that appeals to urbanites in general, without excluding any one community. The coalition should not wait for the next general elections to apply such a strategy to appeal to a cross-section of urban communities.
PN must start now to speak on behalf of urbanites without estranging its core conservative support. In every by-election to come, PN needs to develop a well-thought through manifesto that clearly spells out what it would do for the people should it win at the state and federal levels.
By now, all political parties in this country should understand that no party can win with only a one-race majority. It is not impossible but with a fragmented Malay majority, it is unlikely. The winning formula is to target the ethnic rural communities and a cross-section of urban communities. PN — more than any other coalition — has the advantage of the former; it needs to now focus on the latter.
In KKB, Chinese support for PH remained strong as expected since it is a DAP stronghold and was the main reason why PH kept the seat. Chinese voters are still hopeful that the unity government led by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will deliver on reforms. That, however, may change in the near future.
In the days to come, it will become increasingly apparent that the Anwar administration is NOT accountable to the people. When that happens, it is the urbanites who will see the reason to shift their support and the party that will be most affected by it will be the DAP. That’s my prediction.
When and if that happens, MCA, the other Chinese-based party, stands to gain if it plays its cards wisely. MIC, the Indian-based party, will also benefit from a loosening of non-Malay support for PH parties. The Indians, however, have many parties to turn to and may not be able to provide a cohesive block of votes to the Opposition.
It will be interesting to see in which direction urban Malay sentiments will be directed. If they are sufficiently disgruntled by the way Anwar is leading — or not leading — the country, they may rise up to support the Opposition.
PN, now in the Opposition, however, must be prepared for such an eventuality and PN party Bersatu must take the lead to act proactively to give the disgruntled mostly urban Malays, Chinese, Indians and other non-Malays a compelling alternative to join it.
Bersatu needs to break away from hiding behind PAS’ narrow mono-ethnic perspective to encompass a Malaysian wide perspective without sacrificing its core Malay-Muslim base.
If it doesn’t, Bersatu will be unable to establish its own core support base and lead the PN to offer a confident challenge to PH’s multi-cultural front.
Events are going to occur that will give Bersatu the opportunities to appeal to a cross-section of urban communities.
Already Bersatu is taking steps to rein in its six errant MPs and assemblyman who announced their support for Anwar. If they don’t fall in line with their party, they may be expelled from the party and by-elections will follow. These by-elections will be a testing ground for Bersatu to prove itself as a viable alternative.
But, Bersatu has to start laying the foundation for success now in anticipation of the opportunities it is going to have in the immediate future.
21stcenturycitizen 