Tag Archives: PH

PN got its majority, your turn, Mr PM, to prove yours

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Perikatan Nasional (PN) has sent a strident message still ringing throughout the country that by winning 73% of the Malay vote in the just-concluded state elections, it has taken over from Umno the right to represent the Malays and form a government, which, in effect, is a notice given to Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim that the days of his government are numbered.

The fact that PN won 146 of the 245 seats contested in the state elections held in Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan while Pakatan Harapan (PH) won 99 does not mean that Anwar’s unity government will fall. The federal government remains but PN has proven it has the majority support of the majority race and is in the position to take the lead to form a new government.

Anwar can wait for that to happen and prolong political uncertainty or act decisively now to preempt it. In any democracy, when doubts are cast on the support of the majority for the prime minister (PM), responsible PMs turn to the vote to test their majority (Consider all the examples in Australia, United Kingdom and Canada, to name only the developed democracies). That is the democratic way of resolving the issue of a majority or a lack of it.

Anwar’s supporters have been churning out page after page of suggestions of what he must do to save his administration. They have suggested a Cabinet reshuffle to include more Malay ministers, emphasised the development of the economy, urged reaching out to PN president and former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin to join the unity government, and encouraged giving more incentives to the Malays etc, etc. Yet, none — not even the MPs — have recommended following the democratic process.

This is simply a shocking lack of knowledge of the democratic principles upon which our parliamentary democracy is built according to the federal constitution and relying on those principles to find a solution. Any other way, while having its merits, is simply not democratic and, therefore, unconstitutional.

PN did not take to the streets to demand the right to govern. Its candidates calmly went down to the people through the democratic processes and won their majority support. By doing so, they have thrown the challenge to Anwar to prove his majority.

Now, it’s Anwar’s turn to prove his supermajority not in anyhow way as if this is a cowboy country without law and order where everyone does as he or she deems fit, but by democratic means. He must prove that his supermajority is an accurate reflection of the majority on the ground. Anwar needs to know what he apparently has yet to learn — that a prime minister is only as strong as his grassroots support, which is his responsibility to prove he has.

There are two ways a prime minister can prove his majority: Call for snap elections or a confidence vote in Parliament.

Calling for a snap election is not a suitable option now as a general election was concluded just about nine months ago. Calling for a confidence vote is the better and sole alternative left.

There are two possible ways to call for a confidence vote. Anwar calls for one or, even better, since he now has a supermajority, he introduces a law to amend the standing orders so that if a minimum number of MPs (the number can be fixed by the MPs after a debate) call for a confidence vote, it gets priority over all government matters, or he introduces a law to enable MPs to call for a confidence vote which must be carried out.

Once the law is passed, Anwar waits to see if MPs will call for a confidence vote. But, whether he calls for a confidence vote or the MPs call for one, he has to annul the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) he signed with all the parties who joined his unity government so that MPs vote freely, as representatives of their constituents and without compulsion.

If Anwar wins the confidence vote, he remains as prime minister of the unity government. If he loses, it is clear proof that he does not have the majority support of the MPs and he must facilitate a change of government. Either outcome will ensure that the issue of who has a majority is settled and political stability is restored.

A confidence vote is the only democratic option available now for Anwar to resolve the issue of a majority.

The question is whether Anwar will seek the democratic route to find a resolution or fall back to alliances and the backing of the king and other powerful forces to maintain the status quo and remain as prime minister?

If he chooses the democratic solution, he will restore political stability whether or not the status quo remains. If he does not, he should not be surprised if in a matter of time the status quo changes.

Tomorrow, vote with the majority for a majority

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Malaysian voters generally vote along race and religion lines and in the state elections tomorrow that might work for Perikatan Nasional (PN) to return to govern the states of Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah and for PH to retain Penang under a DAP government.

In Selangor and Negeri Sembilan, however, the voting trends are not so clear-cut. There may be a shift in voting patterns as PN has apparently made inroads in Selangor and voters disgruntled with PH may vote against the latter.

Today, just one day left before casting the ballot tomorrow, there may be a further slide in support for PH — especially from Indian voters — after Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s treatment of the student who had asked him about the bumiputra quota at a session at Kolej Matrikulasi Pulau Pinang in Kepala Batas last week.

It should be an eye-opener to non-Malays of the treatment we will get as Anwar uses the advantage of incumbency to go all out to win Malay support.

This, together with the latest action by the Home Ministry to ban Swatch watches and related materials reflecting LGBT influences will surely result in a further loss of votes for PH.

In both of the above cases, PH may have taken the risk to lose some non-Malay votes in exchange for Malay votes. Whether this would be translated to a win by PH will only be known tomorrow. What is sure, today, however, is that the status quo in favour of PH is not guaranteed in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan.

A change in the status quo may result in a hung assembly and that is a likelihood that must be avoided at all costs as it raises the possibility of interference by vested interests — if assemblypersons do not conduct themselves according to the state and federal constitutions.

In the event of a hung assembly, elected representatives have to negotiate a way to form a majority government before presenting themselves to the Sultan whose role in installing a government as defined in the constitution is respected and defended.

The people do not want a repeat of Anwar’s manner of handling a hung government after the 15th general election (GE15) when he failed to convince other parties to join him and a unity government was formed on the instruction of the king with Anwar as PM but which excluded representation from the majority race, the Malays. This happened because Anwar failed to advise the king on the constitutional way of resolving a hung Parliament.

An unconstitutional government must not be formed even at the state level. It would, if no side gets a stable majority, and panicking assemblypersons unconstitutionally seek or facilitate the Sultan’s intervention and, in the process, rob the people of the mandate they entrusted in the hands of their elected representatives. In other words, the government will be compromised in holding itself accountable to the people.

That is the underlying issue at stake in these six state elections — not Malay rights versus non-Malay rights, although they are relevant, but protecting and defending the people’s right to self-determination according to the principles of parliamentary democracy that we practise and which was compromised at the federal level after GE15.

If Anwar did not ensure the uncompromised practice of parliamentary democracy at the federal level there is no certainty that he would practice it at the state level. He may, but it is a risk that the people of Selangor and Negeri Sembilan must not take if we want a democratically-elected majority that is accountable to the people and not to any vested interests.

Only a majority government can ensure that a government of and by the people remains as such.

That is the reason why in these state elections, the voters in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan, must vote with the majority.

In the current context, the coalition that can attain a majority without excluding the majority race, the Malays, is PN. Malay support for PH is questionable and until proven otherwise, PH will be unable to form a Malay-based majority. So, voting for PH is a route to a very possible hung assembly which we must avoid at all costs — if we want to maintain the democratic principle of accountability to the people and keep vested interests out of influencing the affairs of government.

The Malays are with PN. In these state elections, for the sake of protecting our parliamentary democracy, the non-Malays should join forces with the Malays and vote for PN so that PN also undertakes responsibility for our rights. If we don’t, we may not be represented in government.

Non-Malays may hold back from voting for PN because of PAS which is a partner in PN. PAS fielded candidates in Malay-majority seats and voters can counter PAS’ wins by voting for Muda and PSM (Parti Sosialis Malaysia) in your constituencies. Whether in government or in the opposition, Muda and PSM will be the moderating influence on PAS’ fundamental extremism.

Consider what is at stake in these six state elections — the uncompromising practice of parliamentary democracy. If the majority wins in these state elections, it is a clear signal that the people are claiming back our right to self-rule and that we won’t tolerate any government that is not accountable to the people.

Tomorrow, fellow Malaysians, let us vote as Malaysians, not as Malays, Chinese, Indians or others. Let’s vote together with the Malays and install a majority-led government in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan and ensure the sovereignty of the rule by and of the people.

Jitters over PAS; Muda an alternative choice

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It is obvious that Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) strategy in the state elections on Aug 12 is to ride on the “green wave”. While that strategy might work in Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah among the largely more conservative voters, it might backfire in Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan dominated by urban voters.

In Kelantan, PN partner PAS is contesting 39 of the 45 seats in the Kelantan state assembly with Bersatu contesting the remaining six. In Terengganu’s 32 seats, PAS is contesting 27 seats, and Bersatu five. In Kedah, PAS is contesting 21 seats, Bersatu 12, and Gerakan three of the 36-member state assembly.

The fact that PAS was given the majority of the seats to contest in these states is an acknowledgment that the support for PAS that gave the Islamic party 41 parliamentary seats in the last general elections in November remains and will be demonstrated once again in the state elections.

It is likely that PN will win and return to govern Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu. What will be anticipated is whether Bersatu will increase its representation in the state assemblies.

In Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan, PAS has been given more seats to stand for election on the premise that the green wave may have extended to these states and that may aid in uniting the Malays in these three states to vote for PN.

Of the 40 seats in the Penang state assembly, Gerakan will contest 20 state seats, Bersatu, 10, and Pas, 10 under PN. In Selangor, Bersatu has the largest share of seats with 31, PAS, 17, and Gerakan, eight, out of a total of 56 seats. Of Negri Sembilan’s 36 seats, Bersatu will be contesting 15, PAS, 13, and Gerakan six.

Up to now, the voters in these three states have traditionally shunned PAS, with PAS winning only occasionally in the past. To give them a sizeable share of the seats in these three states may spook the urban voters, including the Malay voters, and that may be translated to a loss of votes for PN.

PN failed to factor in the fact that a sizeable number of urban Malay voters — while in favour of Malay unity — may not be willing to sacrifice their individual freedoms by voting for a coalition with a partner known for its hardline medieval brand of religion. The urban non-Malays will definitely not vote for PAS or PN candidates if they suspect PAS may end up as a dominant party in PN.

Therefore, in the seats where PAS is standing for election, Pakatan Harapan (PH) candidates stand a good chance of winning. Where PAS is facing an Umno candidate, considering the current sentiments against Umno, PAS stands a good chance of winning and that would be troubling for PN.

Non-Malays fearing a significant PAS presence in the state government may vote for PH even if they are disappointed with the PH-Umno alliance and PH president and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s performance.

So, it will be a close call for either coalition in Selangor and Negri Sembilan. The state elections will prove whether Umno is a liability to PH in general and PAS to PN in Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan.

After the hullabaloo that the former Kedah’s PAS Menteri Besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor made over Penang being a part of Kedah, it would be an uphill task for PAS to win support for PN. In the spirit of Malay unity, however, PN may increase its representation in the Penang state assembly.

In Selangor, to hedge against a possibility of a hung state assembly, it would be wise for voters to vote for Muda.

Muda is contesting 14 seats in Selangor and three in Penang, two in Negri Sembilan and one in Terengganu. It may not make an impact in Penang, Negri Sembilan and Terengganu but with 14 seats in Selangor, it could, especially in the event of a hung state assembly.

Besides, Muda represents values the urban voters can identify with, such as its multi-ethnic, progressive people-centric politics. Its youthful idealism is a refreshing change from the jaded compromised politics of its seniors. Hopefully, Muda politicians will remain true to their stated agenda even after years of political engagement.

In Selangor, especially, in the coming state elections voters have an alternative in Muda and they should seriously consider giving it a chance to prove itself. The collective outcome of the state elections as a result of Muda’s participation may be just what the people want and need now.

How to beat the Najib factor

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Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin gave lengthy explanations to assure critics that all the data on MySejahtera is solely owned by the government. He further justified the viability of the app after its check-in function is retired as a base to build a digitised medical record system.

However, he failed to address the crux of the matter which is whether the “business arrangement” the government made with the app’s developer, KPIsoft (now known as Entomo (M) Sdn Bhd) was a result of direct negotiation or open tender.

Amidst all the explanations given that remains the unanswered question. Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob could have cast some light on the matter but he’s not around or recovering from a hectic trip to Qatar. He must be the only head of state who makes frequent official trips abroad during this pandemic — to Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Qatar — presumably to boost trade the outcome of which is mainly to open travel lanes, which he could have done via a telephone call!

While Sabri was away, his coalition partners were busy lining up to meet Pejuang chairman and former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad. Perikatan Nasional (PN) partner Bersatu’s president Muhiyiddin Yassin had met up with Tun to ask for support to enable him (Muhyiddin) to be prime minister again. It seems PAS president Hadi Awang is also expected to meet up with Tun. Both may be manoeuvering to form a majority government in an alliance with Pejuang.

The above events simply indicate that the top leadership is absent in more ways than one and it is time for a general election (GE) to replace the current leadership so that we have a prime minister who is elected and who actually leads!

But, will a GE solve the leadership problem? If the current alliances do not change, it will not. That, perhaps, is why both Bersatu and PAS are looking to form a new alliance with Pejuang or vice versa.

Political parties and MPs need to be certain who they ally with. There are two parties to avoid at all cost: Umno, of course, with its court cluster leadership and PAS. PAS plays the field, seeing which party to ally with in the name of the so-called ummah but it had no problems standing by and watching while Muhyiddin — in the name of the ummah — broke up the ummah by sacking Tun and a few others. These same people are seeking Tun’s help now. How ironical! Let the people judge for themselves the nature of these politicians.

If Pejuang accommodates these two leaders, it will be alienating itself from the urban-based parties with whom is the best possibility for a coalition with a majority.

However, if MPs from Bersatu and PAS want to join Pejuang, that should be welcomed, in fact, encouraged!

PAS like Umno must be isolated because both are a threat to the multi-racial fabric that holds Malaysian society together. PAS will play the religious card in exchange for votes. That is unacceptable.

Umno, led by the court cluster, is the most imminent threat to the nation. If it is not isolated and comes back to power to lead the nation, the supremacy of the federal constitution will be at risk. That is what is at stake here.

Led by desperadoes president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and adviser and former prime minister Najib Razak, Umno will be willing to compromise the federal constitution to give constitutional monarchy sway over parliamentary democracy if in doing so they can get a royal pardon and escape sentencing that might mean a jail term, or for any other reason deemed fit for them.

Look at Johor. The mandate of the people was overruled by the decision of the Sultan over the choice of Mentri Besar and Umno did not fight for the people. With regard to the Maharani Energy Gateway project, according to Muar MP Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman, the Department of Environment had allegedly taken down an environmental impact assessment for the project from its official website after he raised concerns over a reclamation project linked to the Johor Sultan.

The EIA is a public document. Why was it removed? Apart from Syed Saddiq, who are speaking up for the people? PKR and DAP assemblypersons aren’t because they can’t. They were seen in photographs with the Johor royalty.

We can not afford to have a similar situation at the federal level where constitutional monarchy assumes a superior position over parliamentary democracy. Just like in Johor, that may happen if Umno comes back to power led by the court cluster.

That is the reason why Umno must be defeated and removed from all political equations.

There are four possible ways to achieve this objective.

Firstly, if Umno members can remove the court cluster from their leadership positions, they will save their party and it can be considered a possible ally. But that hasn’t happened and if at all it happens it will happen next year when party elections are held. That’s too long a wait.

Secondly, Umno MPs can leave the party and join other parties. That’s the best course of action if they want to protect the constitution rather than put money in their pockets. Well, they should do it before the anti-hopping bill is passed.

Thirdly, break all ties with Umno whether through a coalition at the state or federal level or the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)with Pakatan Harapan (PH). Who knows, PH parties may win back the support they lost as a result of the MoU.

Frankly, after being thrown out of the state government in Johor by its coalition partner, PN should have resigned from the government at the federal level. Understandably that might be a difficult thing to do as it would trigger both federal and state elections. So, PN parties need to tolerate their awkward position a little longer.

If none of the above happens, then, the last and fourth solution is to call for a general election. If PN or Umno leaves the government or the MoU is ended and not extended, it would trigger a general election.

Apart from Umno, no other party or coalition wants a general election because they are not confident they can win enough seats to form a coalition with a majority. But if Umno is isolated, all the other parties can negotiate to form a coalition with a majority, perhaps even a two-thirds majority.

It’s a possible scenario if the over-riding objective is to defeat Umno rather than manoeuvre to become prime minister. The candidate for the prime ministership should be one who can get the support of the majority.

For the fourth scenario to happen one very important factor needs to be recognized. The new coalition or parties in that coalition must be able to win some of the seats in Umno’s strongholds and a few more Malay-majority urban seats.

For these voters, the issues are survival and essentials. Multi-culturalism, criticisms of race-based politics and other such favourite middle-class and urban issues will fall on deaf ears. Urban voters need to understand this and refrain from accusing those who can reach the rural and urban poor because without their votes Umno will win, and we can say goodbye to parliamentary democracy!

A general election is the best solution to be free from the Najib factor if Umno can be isolated before that. Between now and then the voters need to be watching: Which MP or party will choose to act to isolate Umno and save parliamentary democracy or stay put and save their pockets? We will then know who to vote for.

A strategy to stop the Najib factor

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Some factions in Umno are clamouring for snap elections based on the party’s success in the Johor and Melaka state elections. If general elections are held soon, Umno might win again based on the formula on which it won the state elections. Then, again, it may not.

Umno won the Johor state elections on a very low voter turnout of 43%. According to Bangi MP Ong Kian Ming, out of the 40 seats Barisan Nasional (BN) — of which Umno is the leading party — won, 20 or half had less than 50% of the popular votes.

It was also reported that in the urban Malay-majority seats which Umno won, the combined votes that went to Perikatan Nasional (PN) and the opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) made up a majority over the votes Umno got. In other words, the majority of the voters, perhaps even the majority of Malay voters, do not support Umno/BN.

That being the case, it is astonishing that former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s party, Pejuang, failed to win even one seat and instead lost all its deposits. It is important to find out why Pejuang lost so miserably as it would shed some light on the forces influencing Malaysian politics now.

Pejuang would not have gone into the Johor state elections if it didn’t have any support. It may not have formed the state government but, considering Tun’s stature, it would have won a few seats, at the least. The standard explanation given to explain Pejuang’s dismal performance in the Johor state elections is that the voters have rejected Tun and what he stands for. I beg to differ.

Tun represents a strong, albeit unbending, leadership. And, there were expectations that his party would make an impact in the Johor elections. But he fell seriously ill just before the elections and the immediate reaction to that fact was that both Pejuang and his supporters lost heart. It was a reality check for all. The prospect of a strong leadership began fading into history and Pejuang leaders had too short a time to prove that they could provide the strong leadership that their chairman represented.

Tun recovered and by the time Pejuang did, the available time was insufficient, as its president Mukhriz Mahathir explained, to engage the voters and show them their mettle. Meanwhile, the voters made a pragmatic decision: In the absence of a strong leadership, they voted for other parties.

Pejuang has been knocked down but it is not out. According to a Bernama report, Pejuang obtained 18,692 votes or 1.34% of the votes, which means it still has some support. That base support can be galvanized to create the momentum to draw increasing support if Pejuang rises to its feet, lifts up the torch that Tun has lit, stands up for this nation and lives up to its name. It all depends on Pejuang leaders now.

Why am I taking the trouble to talk about Pejuang? Let’s consider what would have happened if Pejuang had found a foothold in the Johor state assembly. Would Johor’s appointment of its Mentri Besar have been handled in the way it has?

Umno has more than a two-thirds majority in the state assembly. Any party with that kind of a majority that holds itself responsible for being accountable to its voters would have fought for its candidate. The prime minister is an Umno vice president and has the leverage to assert its federal government authority to back his party’s candidate in the state. Why did Umno acquiesce and gave in to a “higher power”?

The answer is in its court cluster leadership. Although it is answerable to the people and no one else, Umno’s court cluster would rather ensure its survival by not antagonizing the Johor Sultan whose support they might need at the state and federal levels and, especially, in the event they are convicted and need a royal pardon. That seems to be the only logical explanation.

The court cluster’s intentions are common knowledge and it revolves around one person, in particular, former prime minister and Umno advisor Najib Razak. Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has publicly acknowledged that it was Najib’s influence that won Umno the majority to govern Johor.

But what is not logical is how the Najib factor is able to demolish all the opposition it has faced and create a power vacuum that is paving the way for his comeback, perhaps even as prime minister. In that power vacuum, vested interests are asserting themselves as in Johor and neither Zahid nor Najib is stopping it.

Instead, every competitor to Najib has been removed or made irrelevant. Muhyiddin has been removed. The formidable Mahathir, too, has been pushed aside and his party struck down. Sabri is a puppet in the hands of the court cluster. Election after election, the Najib factor is gaining ground on an incredulous and inexplicable unbroken winning streak!

There seems to be more than meets the eye to the reasons for the success of the Najib factor, a sleight of hand, pulling the strings to facilitate the survival of the court cluster by ensuring that all opposition to it is removed, and, in the process distorting the political reality. I suspect it is also creating the fear of repercussions should there be any opposition to the advance of the Najib factor.

That, perhaps, is why Umno politicians are unable to do what they know is constitutionally correct. All the noise they make simply masks the fear that if they oppose the Najib factor in any way they would be burnt as Muhyiddin, Mahathir and Pejuang have.

That sleight of hand which is the Najib factor is also common knowledge. My purpose is not to identify it but to expose its modus operandi based on what is evident and, more importantly, to declare that it can be stopped!

The Solution

Sever all links with the court cluster and the party of which they are members, which, in this case, is Umno.

Muhyiddin invited Umno to join PN as part of the Sheraton moves fully aware its leaders were facing criminal charges in court. Intentionally or not, he opened a channel for the Najib factor to access the corridors of political power and influence political outcomes. We have witnessed it in the return of Umno to power.

The only way to stop the Najib factor from spreading to achieve what it wants is to cut all links to it. By doing so, it will be disabled from influencing politics. Politicians and BN partners have to decide whether to remain in and with Umno. If they do and there is conflict in priorities against the priority of the Najib factor for self-preservation, be prepared to get burnt, and don’t say you weren’t warned!

PN is in a precarious situation. For the moment it is safe because Umno needs it to maintain a majority to remain in government. But, when interests conflict, the Najib factor interests will dominate and perhaps at PN’s expense. There has been some talk that some PN MPs are planning to join Umno/BN. Maybe, they should think twice, thrice, many more times or they may regret.

PH, too, needs to sever its link with the Umno-led government, which is the MoU it signed with the Sabri government. PH wants to preserve the MoU in order to introduce the anti-hopping bill. In the current political climate, the bill will deter Umno politicians from leaving and that might not be a good idea if the overriding objective is to cut ties to the Najib factor to leave Umno isolated.

An untethered Umno will be unable to form a majority government. Cutting links to Umno will precipitate a general election. By then, however, all the political parties except Umno will be set free from the creeping tentacles of the sleight of hand and can participate in the general elections in their own strengths. The outcomes will be determined by the interplay of the decisions made by politicians, political parties and voters and will be a true reflection of the support of the people.

It is the duty of the leaders to ensure that the voters are free to determine their own destiny. That will save the nation. They must act now to get back to the rule of law according to the constitution.

Time for closure and to start a new chapter

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It’s time to bring the chapter in Malaysian history that opened two years ago with the Sheraton Moves to a close and start a new chapter. The Sheraton Moves and the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government that followed resulted in three major consequences that were and still are detrimental to the country.

Firstly, the PN government seized power outside of Parliament without proving its majority and, in doing so, contravened the federal constitution but expected to be recognized as legitimate. To this day, it has failed to address its unconstitutional origins and has installed a coalition party member as the prime minister. Ismail Sabri Yaakob followed the precedent set by his predecessor, Muhyiddin Yassin, and likewise failed to prove his majority.

By failing to prove their majority both PN leaders have shown disdain for the constitution and refused to recognize that they set themselves up as the prime minister unconstitutionally, creating a constitutional crisis that is yet to be resolved.

Secondly, the PN government brought former kleptocrat premier Najib Razak back close to the corridors of power. The convicted criminal now openly and fearlessly campaigns for the candidates of his party, Umno, on the election trail. No one can do anything about it because the courts have stayed sentencing over his conviction. Not only is he moving around freely but apparently has the support of some Chinese factions which encourage China-Malaysia ties and who — with no respect for the judiciary’s decision to convict him — invited him to open the 11th World Chinese Economic Forum.

I am flabbergasted that there are Malaysians who have lost all sense and will openly go against the constitution and get away with it and who without a blight of conscience invite a convicted premier to open an international forum and get away with that too!

Thirdly, the Opposition has proven itself powerless to stop constitutional violations and convicts from roaming freely for the simple reason it was more interested in petty personal politics rather than putting the nation first and seeking to work together for the good of the people and demanding compliance with the law of the land.

For two years we have had to put up with a poorly-performing government, a national embarrassment and a weak opposition. Malaysia’s saving grace is the great spirit of the people to help one another in the face of crisis. As Klang MP Charles Santiago has described it, the recent floods have shown that the government is “redundant”. It’s an apt description.

The question to address now is: Why are we supporting such a useless government?

There’s only one group of people who can stop the current government: the Opposition — if it can work together and seize the opportunities that lend themselves to take the government back constitutionally. So far it has missed all the opportunities that came its way. Now, it has to create a new opportunity to retake the government or force a general election.

Retaking the government may be out of the question now because it might not get a majority. Malay-based PN parties Umno and Bersatu have declared they won’t form a pact with the opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition. Opposition party Pejuang seems to be going solo and may not join PH. That means the only alternative left for PH is to force a general election.

Some analysts claim that now is not a good time for PH to seek a general election as voter sentiments are not in favour of PH parties PKR, DAP and Amanah considering their losses in the recent Malacca and Sarawak state elections. But after the failure of the PN government to provide swift rescue to the people in the recent floods, it would mean that neither are the PN parties popular with the people.

Faced with a choice between PN parties and Opposition parties, there’s a good chance the people may choose the opposition parties, especially if the latter stand on a national policy of sustainable development, environment preservation and reforms. That’s the new chapter we need to start, one that begins with an elected government committed to good governance and with the will to execute and enforce policies that bring direct benefits to the people.

The recent floods and water cuts have clearly shown that river and water management and maintenance in the face of climate changes need to be the focus of any national policy without sacrificing development objectives for the majority in the bumiputra semi-urban and rural regions. The lack of a swift disaster management response by the National Disaster Management Agency reflects on the inability of the current government to handle such crises or any crisis for that matter! That should be the last straw in supporting an unelected and unable government to remain in power.

Should another disaster occur, there’s no evidence so far that the Sabri government will be able to handle it. Even with the covid 19 pandemic, although the daily active cases have dropped, the fatalities though dropping are still high. Malaysia’s daily covid 19 death toll is in the lower double digits (41 on Dec 28) although we are nearly 80% vaccinated compared to Indonesia’s single-digit deaths (7 on Dec 30) with only 41% of the population vaccinated.

In terms of disaster management, the Sabri government can’t be relied upon and we can’t risk another disaster in its hands.

PH has to think through carefully what it intends to do for the good of the country. It needs to ask itself if the Memorandum of Understanding it signed with the Sabri administration is beneficial for the country or has it removed any real and effective check and balances of the government?

So far, all its advice and criticisms and calls for improvements have fallen on deaf ears. Sabri has responded to no issue and changes have been negligible. Is there any point in continuing with the MOU?

If the MOU is torn up, it would trigger a general election which may be what is needed for a reset. But PH has to think through very shrewdly as to how to face a general election.

Perhaps, like Pejuang, PH parties should go solo in the next general election. If there’s a hint they may form an alliance with Pejuang, urban voters who right now see former premier and Pejuang chairman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad as a liability may stay away from voting. If Pejuang joins forces with PH, the former may be unable to lure the Malay-majority votes it is targeting because of its association with non-friendly urban non-Malay voters.

This is the political reality because Malaysian voters have not matured enough to understand the special problems of specific races and accommodate them. The more developed urban voters should, by right, show greater magnanimity than they have shown so far and be more inclusive of the still-developing semi-urban and rural bumiputra voters. The progressive leaders understand the conflict in values between the two groups but, unfortunately, the voters see it as a race issue rather than a development issue.

PH also needs to know which Malay-based party to support to form a coalition post-election. If it supports Umno, PH will be facilitating the return of kleptocrats unless the current leaders are removed during Umno’s party elections. There’s no time, however, to wait for that to happen. If PH supports PN, it will be facilitating the return of incompetence personified! The only choice is to support Pejuang, which, apparently is seen as a threat to PN and Umno but not proven yet until tested in a general election.

If as individual parties each wins enough seats, it can regroup as the PH coalition and seek more partners to form a comfortable majority post-election.

The point is that PH has to think through very carefully exactly what it intends to do to remove the Sabri/PN government. Supporting the current administration will be putting the nation at risk.

In the hope PH will act for the good of the nation, I wish you all a Happy New Year!

Factors to consider in strategies for GE15

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There are two distinct outcomes of the Malacca state elections to take note of seriously in preparing for the upcoming 15th General Election (GE15).

Firstly, opposition coalition Pakatan Harapan (PH) should realise by now that it would be foolhardy for it to go into an election alone. PH, led by PKR president Anwar Ibrahim, entered the election without the help of other opposition parties like Pejuang, Muda and Warisan.

Warisan is Sabah-based and could not have been much help but Pejuang and Muda, which are Peninsula-based, could have lent their election machinery or shown their solidarity with PH parties by their presence on the campaign trail. Muda president Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman’s statement that Anwar should consider other opposition parties in seeking cooperation is telling.

Muda had wanted to contest in the state elections under PH but apparently changed its mind when PH decided to accept the two Umno assemblymen from the four who withdrew their support for the Umno-led state government causing the Yang Di-Pertua Negeri Ali Rustam to dissolve the assembly and call for fresh elections. The two were then sacked from Umno but PH coalition parties PKR accepted one and Amanah the other.

Muda apparently did not want to be associated with a coalition that accepted the defectors whose action triggered the state elections. Both Muda and PH might have had their reasons for making the decisions they did but Syed Saddiq’s point is worthy of note: PH should consider the sensitivities of its fellow opposition parties rather than choose a course of action where they go it alone.

Pejuang had previously announced it was not participating in the state elections but if PH had cordial relations with Pejuang the latter might have helped in some other ways that might have worked in PH’s favour.

Yet, Pejuang chairman helped from a distance. On the eve of polling day, Pejuang chairman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad asked for bloc voting (where every MP’s vote is recorded) rather than voice voting in passing Budget 2022 at the policy stage at the Dewan Rakyat. He failed in his attempt because PH MPs bound by the MoU did not vote for it. A minimum of 15 MP’s votes is required before the request is carried through.

If bloc voting was allowed and the Budget was defeated or won by a very close margin it might have affected the votes in the Malacca state elections. A strong united assault by the opposition would have suggested a possibility that it could win and swing more votes to PH.

It was a missed opportunity and we will never know how it would have affected the state elections. It just showed that PH failed to seize an opportunity that offered itself and use it to its advantage. PH demonstrated that same indifference in not voting against the previous Budget last year and in failing to do so legitimised an unconstitutional government. It did the same when former premier Muhyiddin Yassin resigned in August. PH could have approached Sarawak’s GPS to join it to gain a majority or let Warisan president Shafie Apdal take the lead in approaching GPS. That didn’t happen. So, we will never know now if PH could have succeeded on any of these three occasions.

These events were missed opportunities for PH to show it can work with and lead a multi-party coalition to win. If the PH leadership can not demonstrate the resolve to unite the opposition to face GE15, it will be unable to form the next federal government.

Secondly, the bank of votes in Malay-majority constituencies are no longer guaranteed to Umno. According to DAP’s Bangi MP Ong Kian Ming, Barisan Nasional’s (BN) vote share in the Malacca state elections saw only a slight increase of 1%.

However, political analyst Bridget Welsh, who is also an honorary research associate of the University of Nottingham, in her preliminary analysis of the state elections said that while Umno got a 5% increase in votes PKR lost only a small share of the vote, from 10% to 9% in its wiped-out seat losses. In eight seats Umno won by narrow margins of less than 5%.

This suggests that with a concerted and united effort, PH may be able to win back the seats it lost and, perhaps, even win new seats.

Of all the parties that took part in the state elections, it is said that Bersatu performed beyond expectations because it was expected to be wiped out but, instead, won two seats in Sungai Udang and Bemban. Welsh attributes this to the younger voters who were looking for alternatives to Umno and found it in Bersatu.

Bersatu president Muhyiddin however may not be jumping for joy. With all the cash that he poured into the hands of the B40 group during his administration under the guise of covid-19 aid and which continues under Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob, Muhyiddin believed he could make a clean sweep. After all, just before he resigned he did say that “millions” supported him.

That would be a sobering fact that the support he thought he had was illusory.

The Malacca state elections reveal that the Malay-majority voters have seen through the antics of their leaders and have not fallen for it. Voter turnout was low at around 66%; cash aid didn’t tempt voters to surge out of their homes to vote. Fear of covid-19 and being fatigued by self-serving politics could be the reasons for the poor turnout. But, it can also mean that an increasing number of Malay voters are now ready to vote for candidates other than Umno.

If Umno believes its performance in the Malacca polls will be repeated in GE15, it is going to be disappointed. Malay-majority seats will become the battlegrounds in GE15 and it will be fought hard by multiple parties in multi-cornered fights.

Umno, Bersatu, PAS, Amanah and PKR in some cases, and Pejuang will be contesting in the Malay-majority seats. Pejuang has already announced that it intends to contest in 120 of the traditionally Malay seats held by Umno.

Malay votes are going to be split. No one Malay party is going to get a majority to form a government on its own. It will be forced to form coalitions. The Malay parties like Umno, PAS and Bersatu may go it alone and when unable to get a majority will join forces together with Sabah and Sarawak parties, post-elections.

If, however, Pejuang emerges with a significant number of Malay seats, it would be interesting to see how the coalitions change to accommodate it. The first choice of Malay-based parties will be other Malay-based parties, which means PH will only get the leftover parties and it may not be enough to form a government.

It would be in PH’s interests to preempt that possibility by entering the elections with an already firmed-up coalition. Otherwise, it may be left in the cold on the opposition bench.

The Sarawak elections on Dec 18 will see if Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB) will slice into GPS’ super majority. If it does, that is another party PH has to consider to form a PH-Plus coalition.

PH should first consider fellow opposition parties like Warisan, Pejuang, Muda and PSB to form a PH-Plus coalition. It will be the only progressive coalition that will be led by both urban and non-urban Malays and represent all the major people groups that make up Malaysia. It will be a formidable coalition that will be hard to defeat.

That is an opportunity that GE15 offers. PH should make sure that it does not become another missed opportunity. It is up to Anwar to make sure that that opportunity happens.

Historic MOU? At what price?

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The MOU signed by Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob with Pakatan Harapan (PH) is touted as historic and no doubt it will be if the reforms are actually delivered. But at what price?

Firstly, the Sabri government remains an unconstitutional government because it hasn’t proven its majority in the Dewan Rakyat and signing an MOU with it is simply legitimising an unconstitutional government. I’m befuddled as to why MPs are willing to overlook this fundamental requirement to establish a legitimate government of Malaysia to make a deal outside of the Dewan Rakyat to get reforms.

Both Sabri and his predecessor, Muhyiddin Yassin, ignored the need for a confidence vote to prove their majorities and opposition MPs raised a hue and cry over it. But, now, they have gone silent. A proven majority legitimises the government but opposition MPs are closing their eyes to it and instead are making deals with an unconstitutional government for “democratic reforms” with no mention of a confidence vote. Doesn’t anyone see the irony in this? Selling out a fundamental constitutional right of MPs in exchange for other reforms that we are not sure the Sabri government can deliver according to the timeline or at all isn’t shortchanging Parliament?

Secondly, the MOU smacks of insincerity on the part of the opposition. PH wasn’t representing the entire opposition — just itself. It was not inclusive of other opposition parties and they have expressed the sentiments of being sidelined.

Another indication of its insincerity is evident in one item on its list of parliamentary reforms — equal funding for government and opposition MPs but not to the opposition MPs who didn’t sign the MOU. Why would Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim not seek equal funding for all opposition MPs? He is leader of all the opposition not just PH and all the opposition parties backed him to be prime minister when Muhyiddin Yassin resigned. But he reciprocated in the this way.

Why was PH willing to estrange its opposition allies and split the opposition to sign this MOU?

Perhaps, Anwar has realised that he may never become PM as long as he is in the opposition and feels the need to form new alliances to achieve his goal. Hence, his friendliness towards the Sabri government as Anwar has the support of the former’s party president Ahmad Zahid and party adviser former prime minister Najib Razak both of whom are his chums. Whether that relationship will benefit him is left to be seen. But one thing is certain. If he is pally with these two who lead the court cluster of Umno MPs facing criminal charges in court, it is likely he will drive other allies away who want to have nothing to do with the kleptocrats. The premiership will still elude him.

Unless, the brazen stubborn refusal to hold a confidence vote and the MOU are part of a larger behind-the-scenes conspiracy to prevent former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his candidates from returning to a position of influence in the government.

It is hard to understand why Sabri and Muhyiddin refused to hold a confidence vote. Their argument that the constitution doesn’t spell it out is a no-brainer. The spirit and intent of the constitution demand it and surely they know it?

Both, perhaps, know what a majority of MPs know. A confidence vote will topple them firstly. Secondly, the opposition under Anwar’s leadership will not get the desired majority. There’s no one of stature in the government to take over, except for Zahid and Najib, but they are too tainted by corruption scandals to win a majority. The next best candidate would likely be Mahathir or a candidate he endorses. The fear is that he might win because he has support from the government side to give him or his candidate the majority.

Muhyiddin and now Sabri evidently don’t want this possibility to be played out with that specific outcome. The question is why? Why are they willing to transgress the constitution just to keep Mahathir out? In the absence of a rational explanation from them as to why they refuse, one can only surmise that the conspiracy theory is true.

But, who are behind Muhyiddin and now Sabri that they are confidently willing to abandon a confidence vote to remain in government on the grounds of the Agong’s appointment without the validation of the people in the Dewan Rakyat as is required in a parliamentary democracy? Zahid, Najib, or vested interests outside of Parliament?

If these people have got prime ministers in their pockets and these prime ministers are refusing to face a confidence vote on account it, they must be called out because they are compromising the integrity of the Dewan Rakyat and MPs must fight to ensure that never happens.

Hence, PH’s sincerity of motive is questioned. To acquiesce to the position now held by Sabri to prevent a confidence vote and be willing to sacrifice it in the name of reforms? In doing so, PH is failing to do its job of ensuring the independence and integrity of the Dewan Rakyat.

Is the MOU an attempt by Anwar to become PM in the same way Muhyiddin and Sabri became prime ministers? With the support of powerful vested interests, at the expense of Parliament?

Thirdly, the ends do not justify the means. To prevent the exercise of a fundamental democratic process — the confidence vote — is a dereliction of constitutional duty. Political behind-the-scenes machinations are common and some may go as far as to influence the vote in the Dewan Rakyat in the election of a prime minister. But the votes of MPs will render them powerless because MPs vote on behalf of their voters, fully aware they may be punished if they vote against voter interests.

To deprive MPs of that vote even for the sake of much-needed parliamentary reforms is to allow the Dewan Rakyat to be manipulated by incumbent prime ministers and those who support them.

The MOU should have been signed on the condition of a confidence vote. No MP should deprive another of his or her constitutional right to elect a prime minister. It is unconstitutional and compromises the integrity of the Dewan Rakyat.

Now, we have a situation where there will be no confidence vote to test Sabri’s majority and no fear of bringing the government down. Opposition MPs can shout themselves hoarse. The government will let them, knowing fully well their position is secure. The Dewan Rakyat becomes a toothless tiger — thanks to PH.

DAP’s Damansara MP and party national publicity secretary Tony Pua has said that PH loses nothing from signing the MOU. O, really? Well, let’s see if PH parties would lose votes.

The need to resign and the Opposition’s primary task

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In Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s address to the nation yesterday when he announced that the government will give free vaccines to innoculate 26.5 million or 80% of the population against covid-19, he also said that when the emergency is lifted he would dissolve Parliament to make way for a general election.

He, I am sure, will keep to his word but I’m a bit perplexed here. When the emergency is lifted, what is the status of the Prihatin Nasional (PN) government he leads now under emergency declared by the Agong? That government reverts to its state of not only being a minority government but one without the authority of the office to remain in government.

The term of the PN government that began when the Agong swore in Muhyiddin as the prime minister automatically ended on Jan 9 when the Machang MP Ahmad Jazlan Yaakub (Umno) withdrew his support for Muhyiddin and the number of MPs supporting Muhyiddin dropped to 110 of the 220 MPs in the Dewan Rakyat. That number dropped to 109 on Jan 12 when the Padang Rengas MP Nazri Aziz (Umno) announced his withdrawal of support for Muhyiddin, leaving the latter with a clear minority. A minority government can not continue to govern unless it has resigned and is reappointed by the Agong for an interim period until a majority government can be formed.

Since the minority PN government did not resign, when the emergency is lifted we will have a minority and illegal government, one without the authority of office to govern. So, with what authority can Muhyiddin dissolve Parliament and call for a general election? If he does, I suspect his decision — like his decision to advise the Agong to agree to an emergency — can be challenged in court on constitutional grounds.

This is common sense. Looking at all the practising democracies of the world, it is clear that there is a sequence of steps that needs to be followed to legitimize a government. Take Itay, for example. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte resigned last week when the small Italia Viva party withdrew from the ruling coalition leaving him with a minority. Subsequently, the process began to form a government with a majority.

Why do PN leaders and their supporters feel they don’t have to follow these democratic conventions? Or, they just don’t know? This is the real reason how PN came to power — not because the previous prime minister, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, resigned.

Mahathir resigned because he lost support from his party. But, what followed was chaotic and in the swift succession of events, some constitutional steps were overlooked, either out of ignorance or political expediency. The process to form a new government with a majority begins with the resignation of the incumbent government when it has lost its majority.

It, indeed, will be interesting to see how the courts will rule on these issues and if the judiciary is able to recognize the constitutional relevance of the cases that have been brought to its attention and the urgency of the need to address them. Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) president Anwar Ibrahim, former Umno leader Khairuddin Abu Hassan and a number of NGOs have started legal proceedings against Muhyiddin and Attorney General Idrus Harun regarding the constitutional basis of their decisions/advice to the Agong.

If the courts don’t throw out these cases, and a clear decision is made, future prime ministerial candidates will know in black and white what they can and should do and can’t and shouldn’t do according to the federal constitution.

So, when the emergency is lifted the first thing Muhyiddin and his Cabinet need to do is to resign and advise the Agong to call on the leader who can muster a coalition with a majority to form the government. Instead of bickering and blaming each other,  the Opposition needs to set their differences aside and present themselves as the only united, cohesive coalition with a majority under one name as the prime minister.

The Opposition has to stop blaming Mahathir for the fall of the Pakatan Harapan (PH) government. It fell not because he resigned but because Muhyiddin pulled Bersatu out of PH and it lost its majority. Mahathir still got a majority after Muhyiddin was named the prime minister but he lost communication with the Palace and his majority was ignored as Muyhiddin took power.

Subsequently, there were a couple of opportunities when the Opposition could have taken control of Putrajaya but their efforts fell through and that wasn’t due to Mahathir’s doing. So, why aren’t these people being blamed? Everyone knows PKR created a ruckus over Anwar’s position. With PKR demanding a timeline for the transfer of power how could Mahathir be sure of their support?

The blame game will lead to nothing but recriminations and accusations, which means the Opposition will lose the chance to offer itself as a strong and united coalition with a majority in the event the PN coalition resigns from government.

The primary task facing the Opposition now is to reconcile, forge together in unity, agree on one name as prime minister and wait for the PN government to resign.

A general election after the emergency is lifted is bad timing because people would want to first find jobs again and start over their businesses. They wouldn’t want it to be disrupted by an election. It would be better to wait until life goes back to some semblance of normalcy before a general election is held.

A general election now would also mean that political parties as they are now — divided — will be unable to form a majority and political instability will continue unless the Opposition is able to present itself as the sole alternative that has a majority.

I believe the Opposition will have a comfortable majority if they stopped attacking Mahathir and closed ranks and got ready to take over when the opportunity lends itself.

It might come sooner than we think.

The only option left

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Two things are unlikely to happen in the current political scenario. Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin will not step down and Umno will not quit the Perihatin Nasional (PN) government no matter what.

Muhyiddin won’t resign because its coalition partner Umno will position itself for a comeback and his party Bersatu will have to take a back seat. He won’t want that to happen. Umno, no matter how recklessly destabilising its blustering bullying gets, won’t quit the PN because it’s trying to make a comeback through the backdoor.

Both need to be in the government to have access to funds to put in the hands of the B40 group who form the backbone of the support for both parties. Without funds, support for these parties is not guaranteed.

So, the PN coalition will remain but consider at what future costs. The the covid19 pandemic will be managed, thanks to our excellent Health Director-General Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah, with or without the PN government. The sudden spike in cases is being used as an excuse to resort to drastic measures to control an uncontrollable Umno and that makes the PN government a dangerous government because it has demonstrated its willingness to rely on extreme measures to control a situation it can’t manage.

So, will it do the same when people start fighting for dwindling resources?  The economy is going to get worse because of the pandemic. Businesses are downsizing or closing down; people are losing jobs. Government income from taxes will be greatly reduced and with depleting resources the Prime Minister will have less funds to put cash in the hands of the B40 group. More people will be fighting for limited resources and if one group is favoured over the rest, the strain on the people will be greater and who knows how it will explode? If the PN government can not manage the covid 19 third wave peacefully can it manage economically-fuelled racial tensions in the future without relying on extreme action? That’s yet to be seen but are we going to wait until that happens when it might be too late?

There is an option now that is yet to be considered seriously. Restore the GE14 mandate of the people in its entirety, which is a Pakatan Harapan (PH) government composing PKR, DAP, Amamah and Bersatu and its splinter party Pejuang and Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman and his Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda) party with former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad as the Prime Minister-designate and with Gabungan Parti Sarawak and Sabah Warisan Parti  in tow as PH-friendly.

I know PH parties are moving on with alternative arrangements but it must respect the mandate of the people in the GE14 and seek to restore the coalition and its composition as elected by the people. Any combination outside of the original PH coalition will not work. Strife and political instability will continue and it will get worse.

To arrest these twin issues which are causing undue strain on the people, the unelected PN government must be made to face the due processes of parliamentary democracy. No elected MP must tolerate an unelected government and must take steps to restore the mandate of the people. But, how?

My suggestion is the GE14 PH original coalition. This is the only choice of a coalition left. Send out feelers to recoup. The parties concerned must be willing to set aside personal feelings for the good of the nation. Tun, Muhyiddin, Anwar, Azmin, eat humble pie and work together.

Sit together and have a pow wow. Thrash out the outstanding issues but with professional courtesy without shouting at each other, especially to Tun. It’s not in our culture, whether Indian, Malay, Chinese or ethnic Sabahan or Sarawakian to be rude to our elders. Maintain professionalism but talk and iron things out, personal feelings aside.

If the PN government is defeated by a vote of no confidence in the Dewan Rakyat next week, it will make it easier for PH to form a majority coalition if it approaches Muhyiddin to join it again. If the no-confidence vote is not called then the MPs vote of PN’s Budget must show respect for the people’s mandate. It would be a betrayal of the people’s  trust and a grossly irresponsible act if elected MPs pass a Budget and put taxpayers’ money in the hands of a government these taxpayers didn’t elect.

If the Budget is rejected, Muhyiddin has to resign and again, PH, as the next coalition with a majority should reach out to Bersatu to join it. Umno and PAS will go back to the Opposition but individual members are free to join PH parties.

Should this suggestion work out and Tun returns as PM — maximum until the next election — I hope there will be ministers in the Cabinet who will advise him NOT to sound like US President Donald Trump in his comments on foreign affairs or race issues. With regard to his latest outbursts at French President Emmanuel Macron, let him know that belligerent bravado does not help the Muslim world; respectful engagement does.

My suggestion of reuniting the GE14 PH coalition is put forward as a solution to continuing political instability and future strife. It is the only workable solution left, in my opinion, and, perhaps, the only solution.