Tag Archives: PN

What the Turun Anwar rally means

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Tonight (July 26), a mammoth “Turun Anwar” rally is being planned to call for the resignation of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. Organised by the Opposition, Perikatan Nasional (PN), the rally is expected to attract thousands.

PN component partner Bersatu’s deputy president Hamzah Zainuddin claimed in Parliament that he expects about 500,000 people to attend the rally at Dataran Merdeka. If such a figure did turn up at the rally, Anwar will be faced with the daunting prospect of recognising the will of the people and stepping down or defying the people and staying on as PM.

PN may be confident of a large turnout based on feedback from the ground. Realistically, however, that figure may be hoped for rather than expected. If 500,000 people do turn up at the rally, it would be a very clear indication of the discontent on the ground and it would do well for Anwar to heed what the people want.

Even if the turnout was less than expected, even if it is only 10,000 or even less, Anwar has to take note of it seriously. A smaller crowd does not mean that the discontent is limited. It could mean the tip of the iceberg and Anwar should not wait until the submerged iceberg of discontent swells up and sweeps over!

Nevertheless, Anwar has dismissed the rally, saying that it doesn’t mean anything as his administration is intact. He has also said that he would not step down unless he loses a confidence vote in the Dewan Rakyat. It was reported in the media that he has instructed the Speaker of the Dewan Rakyat to agree to a confidence or no-confidence vote should the MPs call for one.

A confidence/no-confidence vote in the Dewan Rakyat is the conventional means of removing a prime minister from office. In the current political scenario, however, even if the Speaker allows for one, the government MPs will not be free to vote according to their conscience and the outcome would likely favour the incumbent PM, for just one reason. The political parties which joined Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition to form a majority government are bound by a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) where they promise to support him for a full term. In exchange they got benefits.

So, Anwar’s deceptive confidence is understandable. The MoU will ensure he wins a confidence/no-confidence vote so he can appear magnanimous in inviting MPs to call for one knowing he will pass the test.

That direction to the Speaker to accommodate a call for a confidence/no-confidence vote, however, reveals the PM’s lack of interest in resolving the issue of a hung Parliament or the need to prove a PM’s majority support in the House. It amounts to executive interference. His direction indicates that the Speaker is not independent.

As a PM who claims to be a reformist, Anwar would have proven his word true if the first thing he had done after being appointed PM was to implement a process by law to call for a confidence/no-confidence vote to solve the urgent issue of a hung Parliament and in choosing a PM with the majority support of the Dewan Rakyat.

With a two-thirds majority, albeit by an undemocratic MoU, he could have easily done it. The fact that he didn’t simply shows that he himself wasn’t confident of his purported majority support of the MPs.

Now, if the PM is sincere, he would cancel the MoU, free the MPs to vote as they wish, set in place the proper process to call for confidence/no-confidence vote and leave it to the MPs to decide what to do.

Since he hasn’t done that and if today’s rally draws thousands, Anwar has to consider their request and resign. If he fails to do that, the Opposition now has very strong grounds to lobby government MPs to support a call for a confidence/no-confidence vote on the grounds that a large segment of the people have no confidence in him.

MPs who understand the democratic principle of accountability will support PN unless they want to lose their voters. It is not worth risking that.

Today’s rally will have a bearing on Anwar’s future as PM.

Bersatu needs to widen its target voter base

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If the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition thought that it could win a mixed seat with a dominant Malay population with only a Malay majority, the Kuala Kubu Baharu state seat by-elections would have put paid that strategy — hopefully!

The PN candidate, Khairul Azhari Saut, lost the seat by 3,869 votes to the winning candidate, DAP’s Pang Sock Tao, who got 14,000 votes. No doubt that the 3,869-vote majority which was less than the 4,119-vote majority that the DAP won for its Pakatan Harapan coalition in the 2022 state elections shows that PN got more votes this time around despite a lower voter turnout of 61.5% from the previous 69%.

This, however, was insufficient to give PN the victory it wanted. PN maintained its core support but it is clear that it failed to win over the support not only of the non-Malays, but the Malays who stayed home, with its race and religion rhetoric and identity politics.

PN needs to accept the fact its conservative support so far has only benefited PAS by giving it control of the four northern states. It will not be replicated in the increasingly urban states going south. In Perak, Pahang, Selangor, Negri Sembilan, Malacca and Johor the majority of the voters are urbanites and they are mainly mixed communities as in KKB.

Therefore, PN has to craft a message that appeals to urbanites in general, without excluding any one community. The coalition should not wait for the next general elections to apply such a strategy to appeal to a cross-section of urban communities.

PN must start now to speak on behalf of urbanites without estranging its core conservative support. In every by-election to come, PN needs to develop a well-thought through manifesto that clearly spells out what it would do for the people should it win at the state and federal levels.

By now, all political parties in this country should understand that no party can win with only a one-race majority. It is not impossible but with a fragmented Malay majority, it is unlikely. The winning formula is to target the ethnic rural communities and a cross-section of urban communities. PN — more than any other coalition — has the advantage of the former; it needs to now focus on the latter.

In KKB, Chinese support for PH remained strong as expected since it is a DAP stronghold and was the main reason why PH kept the seat. Chinese voters are still hopeful that the unity government led by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will deliver on reforms. That, however, may change in the near future.

In the days to come, it will become increasingly apparent that the Anwar administration is NOT accountable to the people. When that happens, it is the urbanites who will see the reason to shift their support and the party that will be most affected by it will be the DAP. That’s my prediction.

When and if that happens, MCA, the other Chinese-based party, stands to gain if it plays its cards wisely. MIC, the Indian-based party, will also benefit from a loosening of non-Malay support for PH parties. The Indians, however, have many parties to turn to and may not be able to provide a cohesive block of votes to the Opposition.

It will be interesting to see in which direction urban Malay sentiments will be directed. If they are sufficiently disgruntled by the way Anwar is leading — or not leading — the country, they may rise up to support the Opposition.

PN, now in the Opposition, however, must be prepared for such an eventuality and PN party Bersatu must take the lead to act proactively to give the disgruntled mostly urban Malays, Chinese, Indians and other non-Malays a compelling alternative to join it.

Bersatu needs to break away from hiding behind PAS’ narrow mono-ethnic perspective to encompass a Malaysian wide perspective without sacrificing its core Malay-Muslim base.

If it doesn’t, Bersatu will be unable to establish its own core support base and lead the PN to offer a confident challenge to PH’s multi-cultural front.

Events are going to occur that will give Bersatu the opportunities to appeal to a cross-section of urban communities.

Already Bersatu is taking steps to rein in its six errant MPs and assemblyman who announced their support for Anwar. If they don’t fall in line with their party, they may be expelled from the party and by-elections will follow. These by-elections will be a testing ground for Bersatu to prove itself as a viable alternative.

But, Bersatu has to start laying the foundation for success now in anticipation of the opportunities it is going to have in the immediate future.

KKB elections -will it be a vote for all Malaysia?

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The big question that will be answered tomorrow in the Kuala Kubu Baharu (KKB) state seat elections is whether the status quo will remain and DAP wins, or change and DAP loses.

For DAP candidate Pang Sock Tao to lose, there should be a significant swing of Malay and non-Malay votes to the Perikatan Nasional (PN) candidate Khairul Azhari Saut.

The conservative Malay vote has more or less reached the maximum and guaranteed for PN. To win, PN needs to swing the non-committal moderate Malay votes to its side. With the kind of rhetoric that PN leaders Muhyiddin Yassin and Abdul Hadi Awang have been spewing out, it can only be hoped that it has not turned off the moderate Malays and the non-Malays.

These leaders have not understood that such rhetoric is simply being heard by the already converted.

If the moderate Malays and non-Malays fail to materialise the swing to PN it would be a costly lesson to PN that its strategies failed to reach out to these groups who would have given them the victory they need.

In the KKB state elections, however, despite PN’s failings mainly due to inexperience, the hope is that the voters will see beyond the tried and useless political rhetoric.

After one-and-a-half years of an appointed and unelected unity government with nothing to show except daily compromises of democratic principles evident to all, with no benefit to the people, voters must realise that they must vote to signal a change.

The unity government cannot offer them anything more than they have already received. Even with a PN candidate in the seat, that may not change. Voters need to understand that in the absence of federal policies to generate incomes for lower-income segments, the current situation will not change.

But, a vote for PN in KKB may herald a change in the state government that ultimately will benefit them and send a strong message to the incumbent federal government that the people don’t support it and thus increase the possibilities of a change of government which will inevitably fill their rice bowl and eventually enlarge it.

Non-Malay voters, however, from past experience, may not be convinced that their rice bowls will be filled and enlarged, and, may choose the DAP as the lesser of the two evils. That is a misconception and may turn against them in the immediate future.

It’s this attitude that caused the DAP to win 42 seats for Pakatan Harapan in the 2022 general elections, but what benefits are the non-Malays getting now? Just more heartaches.

If the non-Malays organised themselves and appointed capable leaders who can engage with PN representatives to find creative solutions to their problems without indebting themselves to PH’s strong backers who have the means to give free land and such, they will be well taken care of and remain free to vote as they please.

The key is not what help the government can give but how they, especially the Indians, can organise themselves to get the help they need while remaining independent and free. Indian voters, especially, must understand this and give themselves a chance to escape a life where they may not be free to vote freely.

If moderate Malays and non-Malays see that giving Bersatu the chance to work with them will be the democratic ways to improving their lives, then, they must understand that a vote for PN is, in fact, a vote for the good of all Malaysia, not just a few multi-cultural groups.

A better life for all Malaysia may not happen immediately; but it will happen as Bersatu gains experience and becomes the dominant party in PN.

A future with PN with the mandate of all Malaysians is any time better than a future with a PH-led government without the mandate of the majority and subservient to its backers.


Time for Bersatu to prove it’s a worthy choice

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The way Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim managed or failed to manage the Allah word on socks and heel issues should have given the Opposition, namely Perikatan Nasional (PN), a very good reason to demand for his resignation.

That didn’t happen. Yet, PN’s reaction is not unexpected. PN commendably refrained from taking political mileage from the earlier mentioned two issues and stayed above the fray.

There could be a couple of reasons for PN’s inaction. Firstly, responsibly, it didn’t want to worsen the situation and showed remarkable calm in not agitating its members to react.

Secondly, PN perhaps knows with the Memorandum of Understanding that prevents parties from voting against Anwar, it would be difficult to muster a convincing majority to seek the resignation of the PM.

Getting a convincing majority must become PN’s primary objective. There are two strategies it can employ to achieve this objective. Firstly, PN must demonstrate a strong and fearless leadership in complying with the federal constitution, and, secondly, it must develop strategies to attract the moderate Malays and non-Malays to win by-elections.

PN’s lacklustre performance particularly on constitutional issues in debates in the Dewan Rakyat will give no MP contemplating a switch to another party a convincing reason to join PN because the MP will have no confidence that PN will back him/her on the strength of constitutional correctness.

Even in the debates on an issue very close to the hearts of people as the amendments to the Citizenship bill, PN MPs had little to contribute. The protests came largely from the government bench and from mostly its supporters.

If PN wants to form a government but does not know the federal constitution adequately to know how to defend itself according to the correct interpretations of the federal constitution, it will fail to win the confidence of the people — and the MPs — and, consequently, their support.

PN MPs were also silent in the debate on the amendments to the Police Act 1967, which included a new clause which makes the Yang di-Pertuan Agong the honorary commissioner-in-chief of the Royal Malaysia Police.

The new clause was not touched during the debate on the bill. How can the king be debated? No MP in his/her right mind will debate on the king. The constitution does not allow it. So what was the rationale of the government to introduce a clause for debate when our laws do not allow it?

Such inconsistencies should be immediately pointed out to show the lack of proper understanding of the constitution in the introduction of an amendment that should not have been tabled in the first place. The king is king of all. Why should he be demoted to a position as honorary commissioner-in-chief of the police? The king can’t be debated but the government’s intention can be questioned.

It is very likely that PN MPs kept silent because it involves the king. But MPs need to understand that it is not the king who is being questioned but the government.

When it comes to the king, MPs may not even want to be seen as expressing a negative reaction for fear of losing his support in the event they need to form a government mid-term. That simply reveals the ignorance of the MPs of the federal constitution and their lack of confidence as a result of it.

The federal constitution is explicit: The king appoints the MP who has the support of the majority of the MPs. If they have a majority, MPs must be confident of their constitutional right to form a government. If the king goes against it, the king is acting unconstitutionally and the MPs must know what to do to act constitutionally.

The king’s hand in the appointment of the prime minister can only be an issue if the MPs let him. Knowing that, MPs, and, especially PN MPs, must learn to confidently act constitutionally.

PN’s success so far has been on the back of its component partner PAS’ groundswell of support. PAS’ support comes mostly from the conservative segment of the Malay-Muslim population. It won four states in the north in the 2022 general election.

While it helped PN win more seats, it was unable to help PN form the state governments in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan. According to political analysts the main reason for this is that PAS’ support had plateaued out.

If PN is going to depend on PAS to deliver the votes in the future, PN is going to be disappointed. PN’s other component partner, Bersatu, must build itself up by reaching the less conservative segments of the Malay population and non-Malays. These segments include the urban Malays who may reject PAS as too conservative and outdated.

So, in the coming by-elections, it is imperative that PN fields Bersatu candidates not PAS candidates. This should be tested in the May 11 by-election in Kuala Kubu Baharu (KKB).

With current sentiments for the Pakatan Harapan (PH)-led unity government at an increasingly descending low, a Bersatu candidate who can appeal to both Malay and non-Malay voters will have a high chance of tipping the swing votes in PN’s favour. Voters are increasingly disgruntled with the current administration. They will give their votes to better alternatives.

Now is the time to prove that Bersatu is a worthy choice. If Bersatu wins KKB, it will be a very strong indication that the voters are turning away from PH, which means the party’s success in KKB may be repeated in subsequent by-elections.

Bersatu must show its leadership qualities and be able to appeal to a broader cross-section of voters if it wants to lead a government of the people for the people.

What’s worse than a bad government?

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Not an incompetent one. Not even a corrupt or autocratic government if it were elected by the people. But an unelected government that does not respect the mandate of the people.

That is what Malaysians witnessed helplessly in the past three years as three governments were formed overruling the mandate of the people. Muhyiddin Yassin’s Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s Umno-PN governments were appointed governments. So is current Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH)-led unity government.

In other words, all three are unconstitutional governments; they were not installed on the mandate of the people, which explains why the first two did not last long and why the third will also not last long. The first was removed by a power-crazy Umno, and the second by an early general election triggered by strong criticisms of an ineffective administration. The third will likely be removed by an opposition that has the support of the majority but was out-maneuvered to form a government.

An unconstitutional government always faces the risk of being thrown out by parties who are able to do so by any means as evidenced by the past two administrations. In the same way, the threat of a change of government will continue to hang over the unity government and prevent it from being effective.

Anwar’s government will be unable to execute policies, whether long-term or short-term, pending another political upheaval leading to a change of government in the immediate future. Investors will prefer to take a wait-and-see approach. This means the economy won’t move forward despite all his talk, billion ringgit Memorandums of Understanding (MoU) and suggestions from powerful allies.

As long as the threat of a change of government hangs over his head, Anwar will be unable to execute development plans.

That is the problem with an unconstitutional government. It will be unable to move forward because responsible MPs will strive to restore constitutional integrity.

If we have unconstitutional governments it is because MPs allowed the mandate of the people to be overruled. These MPs need to understand that their first duty is to their voters and not sell their votes for expediency — whether political, fiscal or religious.

It is unbelievable how some of these MPs’ statements reveal their lack of understanding of democracy. Take Deputy Prime Minister Fadillah Yusof who actually told political parties not to contest in tomorrow’s (Nov 4)Jepak state elections because GPS (his party) will win anyway and contesting is simply a waste of time and resources! Why even hold elections then? Just appoint assemblypersons. Then we will have an autocracy.

Such statements should not be coming from MPs, but it has and it simply shows their lack of commitment to the parliamentary democracy this country practises. That is the reason why there is political instability because our MPs are not fighting for the people according to the democratic principles as prescribed in the federal constitution but allow expediency to take precedence over constitutional integrity.

MPs must be committed to restoring constitutional integrity and do everything they can to achieve it. PN must be commended for fighting to ensure that the mandate of the majority is restored.

Until constitutional integrity is restored, there will be instability and Anwar’s government will face an uncertain future and will be unable to implement development plans, which means the people suffer. The longer it stays in government, the longer the people suffer.

For the moment, after PN failed to win the Pelangai state elections, the unity government can enjoy a little respite. The idea was if PN won Pelangai, it would mean it would have the support of the people and the confidence to trigger a slew of by-elections which if they win will give them an outright majority to form the next government.

That did not work out as expected but Anwar should not think his full term as prime minister is now secure.

As in the way of life, when out of the blue a wild card is dealt, a breakthrough follows. If that wild card appears, it will be to PN’s advantage. When that happens, the MPs must once again choose sides — free of the encumbrances of an MoU — to ensure that a constitutionally formed government is set up.

Perhaps, that wild card has already been dealt. If it has and PN recognises it, act wisely, not just for the good of the country but for the good of humanity. Only good will follow.

Pelangai by-election — PN’s missed chance

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The political climate was ripe for Perikatan Nasional (PN) to win the Pelangai state by-election last Saturday, but the coalition didn’t. Despite discontent over Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s dismissal not amounting to an acquittal (DNAA) and the lack of reforms and economic upliftment under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s administration, PN lost.

It is, no doubt, to PN’s credit that it lost by a smaller majority of 2,949 compared to the 4,048 majority the Umno candidate, Johari Harun, got in the general election last November. The state by-election was called following Johari’s death in the Elmina plane crash in August.

In a small state constituency such as Pelangai with only 16,456 eligible voters and which is an Umno stronghold, a 3,000-vote loss may seem small. Why then was PN unable to trigger a dramatic swing of that small number to its side and win?

This is the question PN needs to ask and examine the factors that caused their defeat when the political environment was conducive to their win.

Two factors come to mind. Firstly, PN read the ground incorrectly. It read the ground correctly in the six-state elections in August and fielded a majority of PAS candidates in the north where it won three states. But, south of these states, fielding PAS candidates did not produce the desired results.

In the southern states of Selangor and Negeri Sembilan and in Pelangai, it is apparent that Malay voters, particularly Umno voters, do not regard PAS candidates in the same way the conservative north does.

It is also apparent that these same Malay voters want an alternative choice to Umno as evidenced by the fact that an increasing number is choosing PN but there are still many who rather vote for the devil they know than the deep blue sea.

PN needs to address what is withholding the latter from swinging to its side.

Secondly, if PN had fielded a Bersatu candidate in Pelangai, would the results have been different?

As long as PN keeps fielding PAS candidates to ride on the green wave which clearly does not exist in the southern states, it is sending the message that PN will be a PAS-dominant coalition. That is a turn-off to non-Malay voters and many Malay voters.

In the current political climate, where disillusionment with the ruling unity coalition is considerably high and rising as each passing day reveals the behind-the-scenes political hanky-panky going on to keep the unity coalition in government, a PAS-dominant PN may be a reluctant alternative.

Voters may have been open to voting for the PAS candidate in Pelangai. But on the eve of the elections, the PAS-led Terengganu government pulled out its gymnasts from participating in Sukma 2024 on the grounds that their outfits were not Syariah-compliant. At the same time, Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin announced that if PN wins Pelangai and triggers a switch of assemblypersons to its side to form the next government, PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man would be the next menteri besar of Pahang.

Both these announcements would have spooked not just the non-Malays but the Malays themselves who would have an idea as to what to expect should PAS win. That would have been enough to change their mind about voting for the PAS candidate.

Voters, including Malay voters, are not that taken up by PAS. It was apparent in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan. PN needs to ask itself if fielding PAS candidates rather than Bersatu candidates is working in its favour or against it. It is certainly working in favour of Umno because Umno is keeping its seats.

A PAS-dominant PN is not delivering the expected votes in the southern states. But a Bersatu-dominant PN might. A Bersatu-dominant PN will show that PAS’ extreme ways will be held in check and that minority interests will not be suppressed by religious domination and that would have a greater appeal to both the reluctant Malays and non-Malays.

Bersatu needs to start building itself up and fielding capable, people-serving and constitutionally-aware candidates in subsequent elections, especially in the non-PAS-ruled states. They should talk about how they would better the incumbent unity government in terms of policies for Malays and non-Malays and offer effective action plans that will not sideline any community in Malaysia.

Bersatu rather than PAS can demonstrate that PN is a coalition for all Malaysians and that it would not sacrifice non-Malay interests for the sake of a Malay-majority government. As a Malay-majority coalition, if it shows itself inclusive of non-Malay interests, it would have a wider appeal and in that confidence, it should field a Bersatu candidate in the next election should such an opportunity arise.

The results might be the very turnaround PN is seeking. PN won’t know for sure until this strategy is tested.

PN got its majority, your turn, Mr PM, to prove yours

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Perikatan Nasional (PN) has sent a strident message still ringing throughout the country that by winning 73% of the Malay vote in the just-concluded state elections, it has taken over from Umno the right to represent the Malays and form a government, which, in effect, is a notice given to Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim that the days of his government are numbered.

The fact that PN won 146 of the 245 seats contested in the state elections held in Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan while Pakatan Harapan (PH) won 99 does not mean that Anwar’s unity government will fall. The federal government remains but PN has proven it has the majority support of the majority race and is in the position to take the lead to form a new government.

Anwar can wait for that to happen and prolong political uncertainty or act decisively now to preempt it. In any democracy, when doubts are cast on the support of the majority for the prime minister (PM), responsible PMs turn to the vote to test their majority (Consider all the examples in Australia, United Kingdom and Canada, to name only the developed democracies). That is the democratic way of resolving the issue of a majority or a lack of it.

Anwar’s supporters have been churning out page after page of suggestions of what he must do to save his administration. They have suggested a Cabinet reshuffle to include more Malay ministers, emphasised the development of the economy, urged reaching out to PN president and former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin to join the unity government, and encouraged giving more incentives to the Malays etc, etc. Yet, none — not even the MPs — have recommended following the democratic process.

This is simply a shocking lack of knowledge of the democratic principles upon which our parliamentary democracy is built according to the federal constitution and relying on those principles to find a solution. Any other way, while having its merits, is simply not democratic and, therefore, unconstitutional.

PN did not take to the streets to demand the right to govern. Its candidates calmly went down to the people through the democratic processes and won their majority support. By doing so, they have thrown the challenge to Anwar to prove his majority.

Now, it’s Anwar’s turn to prove his supermajority not in anyhow way as if this is a cowboy country without law and order where everyone does as he or she deems fit, but by democratic means. He must prove that his supermajority is an accurate reflection of the majority on the ground. Anwar needs to know what he apparently has yet to learn — that a prime minister is only as strong as his grassroots support, which is his responsibility to prove he has.

There are two ways a prime minister can prove his majority: Call for snap elections or a confidence vote in Parliament.

Calling for a snap election is not a suitable option now as a general election was concluded just about nine months ago. Calling for a confidence vote is the better and sole alternative left.

There are two possible ways to call for a confidence vote. Anwar calls for one or, even better, since he now has a supermajority, he introduces a law to amend the standing orders so that if a minimum number of MPs (the number can be fixed by the MPs after a debate) call for a confidence vote, it gets priority over all government matters, or he introduces a law to enable MPs to call for a confidence vote which must be carried out.

Once the law is passed, Anwar waits to see if MPs will call for a confidence vote. But, whether he calls for a confidence vote or the MPs call for one, he has to annul the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) he signed with all the parties who joined his unity government so that MPs vote freely, as representatives of their constituents and without compulsion.

If Anwar wins the confidence vote, he remains as prime minister of the unity government. If he loses, it is clear proof that he does not have the majority support of the MPs and he must facilitate a change of government. Either outcome will ensure that the issue of who has a majority is settled and political stability is restored.

A confidence vote is the only democratic option available now for Anwar to resolve the issue of a majority.

The question is whether Anwar will seek the democratic route to find a resolution or fall back to alliances and the backing of the king and other powerful forces to maintain the status quo and remain as prime minister?

If he chooses the democratic solution, he will restore political stability whether or not the status quo remains. If he does not, he should not be surprised if in a matter of time the status quo changes.

Tomorrow, vote with the majority for a majority

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Malaysian voters generally vote along race and religion lines and in the state elections tomorrow that might work for Perikatan Nasional (PN) to return to govern the states of Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah and for PH to retain Penang under a DAP government.

In Selangor and Negeri Sembilan, however, the voting trends are not so clear-cut. There may be a shift in voting patterns as PN has apparently made inroads in Selangor and voters disgruntled with PH may vote against the latter.

Today, just one day left before casting the ballot tomorrow, there may be a further slide in support for PH — especially from Indian voters — after Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s treatment of the student who had asked him about the bumiputra quota at a session at Kolej Matrikulasi Pulau Pinang in Kepala Batas last week.

It should be an eye-opener to non-Malays of the treatment we will get as Anwar uses the advantage of incumbency to go all out to win Malay support.

This, together with the latest action by the Home Ministry to ban Swatch watches and related materials reflecting LGBT influences will surely result in a further loss of votes for PH.

In both of the above cases, PH may have taken the risk to lose some non-Malay votes in exchange for Malay votes. Whether this would be translated to a win by PH will only be known tomorrow. What is sure, today, however, is that the status quo in favour of PH is not guaranteed in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan.

A change in the status quo may result in a hung assembly and that is a likelihood that must be avoided at all costs as it raises the possibility of interference by vested interests — if assemblypersons do not conduct themselves according to the state and federal constitutions.

In the event of a hung assembly, elected representatives have to negotiate a way to form a majority government before presenting themselves to the Sultan whose role in installing a government as defined in the constitution is respected and defended.

The people do not want a repeat of Anwar’s manner of handling a hung government after the 15th general election (GE15) when he failed to convince other parties to join him and a unity government was formed on the instruction of the king with Anwar as PM but which excluded representation from the majority race, the Malays. This happened because Anwar failed to advise the king on the constitutional way of resolving a hung Parliament.

An unconstitutional government must not be formed even at the state level. It would, if no side gets a stable majority, and panicking assemblypersons unconstitutionally seek or facilitate the Sultan’s intervention and, in the process, rob the people of the mandate they entrusted in the hands of their elected representatives. In other words, the government will be compromised in holding itself accountable to the people.

That is the underlying issue at stake in these six state elections — not Malay rights versus non-Malay rights, although they are relevant, but protecting and defending the people’s right to self-determination according to the principles of parliamentary democracy that we practise and which was compromised at the federal level after GE15.

If Anwar did not ensure the uncompromised practice of parliamentary democracy at the federal level there is no certainty that he would practice it at the state level. He may, but it is a risk that the people of Selangor and Negeri Sembilan must not take if we want a democratically-elected majority that is accountable to the people and not to any vested interests.

Only a majority government can ensure that a government of and by the people remains as such.

That is the reason why in these state elections, the voters in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan, must vote with the majority.

In the current context, the coalition that can attain a majority without excluding the majority race, the Malays, is PN. Malay support for PH is questionable and until proven otherwise, PH will be unable to form a Malay-based majority. So, voting for PH is a route to a very possible hung assembly which we must avoid at all costs — if we want to maintain the democratic principle of accountability to the people and keep vested interests out of influencing the affairs of government.

The Malays are with PN. In these state elections, for the sake of protecting our parliamentary democracy, the non-Malays should join forces with the Malays and vote for PN so that PN also undertakes responsibility for our rights. If we don’t, we may not be represented in government.

Non-Malays may hold back from voting for PN because of PAS which is a partner in PN. PAS fielded candidates in Malay-majority seats and voters can counter PAS’ wins by voting for Muda and PSM (Parti Sosialis Malaysia) in your constituencies. Whether in government or in the opposition, Muda and PSM will be the moderating influence on PAS’ fundamental extremism.

Consider what is at stake in these six state elections — the uncompromising practice of parliamentary democracy. If the majority wins in these state elections, it is a clear signal that the people are claiming back our right to self-rule and that we won’t tolerate any government that is not accountable to the people.

Tomorrow, fellow Malaysians, let us vote as Malaysians, not as Malays, Chinese, Indians or others. Let’s vote together with the Malays and install a majority-led government in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan and ensure the sovereignty of the rule by and of the people.

Jitters over PAS; Muda an alternative choice

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It is obvious that Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) strategy in the state elections on Aug 12 is to ride on the “green wave”. While that strategy might work in Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah among the largely more conservative voters, it might backfire in Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan dominated by urban voters.

In Kelantan, PN partner PAS is contesting 39 of the 45 seats in the Kelantan state assembly with Bersatu contesting the remaining six. In Terengganu’s 32 seats, PAS is contesting 27 seats, and Bersatu five. In Kedah, PAS is contesting 21 seats, Bersatu 12, and Gerakan three of the 36-member state assembly.

The fact that PAS was given the majority of the seats to contest in these states is an acknowledgment that the support for PAS that gave the Islamic party 41 parliamentary seats in the last general elections in November remains and will be demonstrated once again in the state elections.

It is likely that PN will win and return to govern Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu. What will be anticipated is whether Bersatu will increase its representation in the state assemblies.

In Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan, PAS has been given more seats to stand for election on the premise that the green wave may have extended to these states and that may aid in uniting the Malays in these three states to vote for PN.

Of the 40 seats in the Penang state assembly, Gerakan will contest 20 state seats, Bersatu, 10, and Pas, 10 under PN. In Selangor, Bersatu has the largest share of seats with 31, PAS, 17, and Gerakan, eight, out of a total of 56 seats. Of Negri Sembilan’s 36 seats, Bersatu will be contesting 15, PAS, 13, and Gerakan six.

Up to now, the voters in these three states have traditionally shunned PAS, with PAS winning only occasionally in the past. To give them a sizeable share of the seats in these three states may spook the urban voters, including the Malay voters, and that may be translated to a loss of votes for PN.

PN failed to factor in the fact that a sizeable number of urban Malay voters — while in favour of Malay unity — may not be willing to sacrifice their individual freedoms by voting for a coalition with a partner known for its hardline medieval brand of religion. The urban non-Malays will definitely not vote for PAS or PN candidates if they suspect PAS may end up as a dominant party in PN.

Therefore, in the seats where PAS is standing for election, Pakatan Harapan (PH) candidates stand a good chance of winning. Where PAS is facing an Umno candidate, considering the current sentiments against Umno, PAS stands a good chance of winning and that would be troubling for PN.

Non-Malays fearing a significant PAS presence in the state government may vote for PH even if they are disappointed with the PH-Umno alliance and PH president and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s performance.

So, it will be a close call for either coalition in Selangor and Negri Sembilan. The state elections will prove whether Umno is a liability to PH in general and PAS to PN in Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan.

After the hullabaloo that the former Kedah’s PAS Menteri Besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor made over Penang being a part of Kedah, it would be an uphill task for PAS to win support for PN. In the spirit of Malay unity, however, PN may increase its representation in the Penang state assembly.

In Selangor, to hedge against a possibility of a hung state assembly, it would be wise for voters to vote for Muda.

Muda is contesting 14 seats in Selangor and three in Penang, two in Negri Sembilan and one in Terengganu. It may not make an impact in Penang, Negri Sembilan and Terengganu but with 14 seats in Selangor, it could, especially in the event of a hung state assembly.

Besides, Muda represents values the urban voters can identify with, such as its multi-ethnic, progressive people-centric politics. Its youthful idealism is a refreshing change from the jaded compromised politics of its seniors. Hopefully, Muda politicians will remain true to their stated agenda even after years of political engagement.

In Selangor, especially, in the coming state elections voters have an alternative in Muda and they should seriously consider giving it a chance to prove itself. The collective outcome of the state elections as a result of Muda’s participation may be just what the people want and need now.

How to beat the Najib factor

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Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin gave lengthy explanations to assure critics that all the data on MySejahtera is solely owned by the government. He further justified the viability of the app after its check-in function is retired as a base to build a digitised medical record system.

However, he failed to address the crux of the matter which is whether the “business arrangement” the government made with the app’s developer, KPIsoft (now known as Entomo (M) Sdn Bhd) was a result of direct negotiation or open tender.

Amidst all the explanations given that remains the unanswered question. Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob could have cast some light on the matter but he’s not around or recovering from a hectic trip to Qatar. He must be the only head of state who makes frequent official trips abroad during this pandemic — to Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Qatar — presumably to boost trade the outcome of which is mainly to open travel lanes, which he could have done via a telephone call!

While Sabri was away, his coalition partners were busy lining up to meet Pejuang chairman and former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad. Perikatan Nasional (PN) partner Bersatu’s president Muhiyiddin Yassin had met up with Tun to ask for support to enable him (Muhyiddin) to be prime minister again. It seems PAS president Hadi Awang is also expected to meet up with Tun. Both may be manoeuvering to form a majority government in an alliance with Pejuang.

The above events simply indicate that the top leadership is absent in more ways than one and it is time for a general election (GE) to replace the current leadership so that we have a prime minister who is elected and who actually leads!

But, will a GE solve the leadership problem? If the current alliances do not change, it will not. That, perhaps, is why both Bersatu and PAS are looking to form a new alliance with Pejuang or vice versa.

Political parties and MPs need to be certain who they ally with. There are two parties to avoid at all cost: Umno, of course, with its court cluster leadership and PAS. PAS plays the field, seeing which party to ally with in the name of the so-called ummah but it had no problems standing by and watching while Muhyiddin — in the name of the ummah — broke up the ummah by sacking Tun and a few others. These same people are seeking Tun’s help now. How ironical! Let the people judge for themselves the nature of these politicians.

If Pejuang accommodates these two leaders, it will be alienating itself from the urban-based parties with whom is the best possibility for a coalition with a majority.

However, if MPs from Bersatu and PAS want to join Pejuang, that should be welcomed, in fact, encouraged!

PAS like Umno must be isolated because both are a threat to the multi-racial fabric that holds Malaysian society together. PAS will play the religious card in exchange for votes. That is unacceptable.

Umno, led by the court cluster, is the most imminent threat to the nation. If it is not isolated and comes back to power to lead the nation, the supremacy of the federal constitution will be at risk. That is what is at stake here.

Led by desperadoes president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and adviser and former prime minister Najib Razak, Umno will be willing to compromise the federal constitution to give constitutional monarchy sway over parliamentary democracy if in doing so they can get a royal pardon and escape sentencing that might mean a jail term, or for any other reason deemed fit for them.

Look at Johor. The mandate of the people was overruled by the decision of the Sultan over the choice of Mentri Besar and Umno did not fight for the people. With regard to the Maharani Energy Gateway project, according to Muar MP Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman, the Department of Environment had allegedly taken down an environmental impact assessment for the project from its official website after he raised concerns over a reclamation project linked to the Johor Sultan.

The EIA is a public document. Why was it removed? Apart from Syed Saddiq, who are speaking up for the people? PKR and DAP assemblypersons aren’t because they can’t. They were seen in photographs with the Johor royalty.

We can not afford to have a similar situation at the federal level where constitutional monarchy assumes a superior position over parliamentary democracy. Just like in Johor, that may happen if Umno comes back to power led by the court cluster.

That is the reason why Umno must be defeated and removed from all political equations.

There are four possible ways to achieve this objective.

Firstly, if Umno members can remove the court cluster from their leadership positions, they will save their party and it can be considered a possible ally. But that hasn’t happened and if at all it happens it will happen next year when party elections are held. That’s too long a wait.

Secondly, Umno MPs can leave the party and join other parties. That’s the best course of action if they want to protect the constitution rather than put money in their pockets. Well, they should do it before the anti-hopping bill is passed.

Thirdly, break all ties with Umno whether through a coalition at the state or federal level or the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)with Pakatan Harapan (PH). Who knows, PH parties may win back the support they lost as a result of the MoU.

Frankly, after being thrown out of the state government in Johor by its coalition partner, PN should have resigned from the government at the federal level. Understandably that might be a difficult thing to do as it would trigger both federal and state elections. So, PN parties need to tolerate their awkward position a little longer.

If none of the above happens, then, the last and fourth solution is to call for a general election. If PN or Umno leaves the government or the MoU is ended and not extended, it would trigger a general election.

Apart from Umno, no other party or coalition wants a general election because they are not confident they can win enough seats to form a coalition with a majority. But if Umno is isolated, all the other parties can negotiate to form a coalition with a majority, perhaps even a two-thirds majority.

It’s a possible scenario if the over-riding objective is to defeat Umno rather than manoeuvre to become prime minister. The candidate for the prime ministership should be one who can get the support of the majority.

For the fourth scenario to happen one very important factor needs to be recognized. The new coalition or parties in that coalition must be able to win some of the seats in Umno’s strongholds and a few more Malay-majority urban seats.

For these voters, the issues are survival and essentials. Multi-culturalism, criticisms of race-based politics and other such favourite middle-class and urban issues will fall on deaf ears. Urban voters need to understand this and refrain from accusing those who can reach the rural and urban poor because without their votes Umno will win, and we can say goodbye to parliamentary democracy!

A general election is the best solution to be free from the Najib factor if Umno can be isolated before that. Between now and then the voters need to be watching: Which MP or party will choose to act to isolate Umno and save parliamentary democracy or stay put and save their pockets? We will then know who to vote for.