The news of former prime minister Najib Razak’s house arrest sent shock waves among a segment of the voters, particularly those who voted against the Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition and gave the Pakatan Harapan (PH)-Bersatu-PAS coalition (later known as Perikatan Nasional (PN)) the mandate to form the government in 2018.
The rejection of BN was largely due to the 1MDB scandal by a faction of the Malay majority who until then loyally voted for BN. That faction remained with PN despite the 2022 general election which thrust PH leader Anwar Ibrahim to form a government by royal appointment.
Between then and now, however, that Malay faction fragmented when a rebel group led by Hamzah Zainuddin was sacked by Bersatu. They formed a splinter party Wawasan Negara.
This Malay faction had minimal impact in state elections and was unable to give either Wawasan or Bersatu a significant number of state seats.
In the last state elections in Negri Sembilan, PN joined forces with its erstwhile enemy/competitor in the name of Malay unity and the combined Malay votes gave the BN-PN coalition a two-thirds majority in the state assembly.
But, that was before the Najib house arrest. In tomorrow’s Malacca state elections, it will be interesting to see if Malay voters who had rejected BN over Najib’s 1MDB scandal are thoroughly disgusted by the Pardons Board which issued the house arrest which is not provided for in the federal constitution but which the High Court enforced by giving him a release from jail and to continue the rest of his jail sentence in the comfort of his house, and which the Attorney-General didn’t appeal (perhaps, it was one of those decisions that can’t be appealed!), will vote for Umno.
Umno held 21 of the 28-seat Malacca state assembly. If online sentiments are anything to go by, a swing of votes away from Umno and its current ally PN may be expected, even though Umno’s core supporters are over the moon over Najib’s house arrest as they see it as a win for them.
Nevertheless, euphoria should not overlook the silence of the disgruntled. In urban areas, it is very likely that parties associated with Umno in the federal government, such as the PH parties PKR and DAP, will struggle to win.
But it is in Umno’s fringe constituencies, where the Malay vote can go in any direction that needs to be watched.
If the Malay votes swing to BN-PN, it means Umno played a clever game in invoking the “decree” status of the king’s right to grant pardons and a house arrest even though it is not provided for in the constitution, in appealing to the voters’ sense of having won a fight.
If PN wins, it will only be because of its association with Umno.
If Umno loses even one of the 21 seats it held previously, it is an indication that some Malays are not happy with Umno’s shenanigans. If they go against the tide of overwhelming euphoria, it is a very good sign that a minority is emerging from Umno’s base that is snubbing its nose at Umno’s politics.
Tomorrow will tell what Malacca voters want.
