The general consensus among political analysts is that Barisan Nasional (BN) will win with a majority to form the next Johor state government. The more important question, however, is by how much?

In the March 2022 state elections, BN won 40 of the 56 seats in the state assembly, giving it more than a two-thirds majority. Whether that win was a positive endorsement of BN’s policies or not is hard to determine. No doubt, though, the role the palace played — which was alluded to then but not proven — was a factor in BN’s success.

What is known is that in 2022, BN’s poster boy in the state election, Hasni Mohammad, was not appointed as Mentri Besar (MB). The then Johor ruler, who is the current king, admitted in a press statement later that he had appointed Onn Hafiz Ghazi as the MB.

Onn, who is now BN’s poster boy for the MB’s position, clearly has the palace’s endorsement and it is a public message to the people about which party/coalition has royal support.

Whether the voters will factor in the royal influence in their choice is left to be seen.

Johor traditionally has been a BN stronghold, and while support for it nationwide dropped drastically in the 2022 general election (GE), it apparently held to some extent in Johor.

By cultural tradition, too, voters tend NOT to vote against royalty out of respect, except in the urban areas where voters are more educated and may see royal influence in elections as interference in the democratic electoral process and not vote for the palace-endorsed party or coalition candidates.

In terms of performance, the BN state government compares more or less the same with other governments. So, it will be the previous two factors which will determine whether voters want a change or maintain the status quo.

If BN wins more, the voters are endorsing the status quo. If it wins fewer than 40 seats, it means that an increasing number of voters are not buying into the narrative BN is selling and want to change the status quo.

That is the trend to watch. If BN wins fewer than 40 seats, it suggests the voters are not impressed by BN’s performance and are willing to withhold support. The fact that they would be willing to withdraw support despite royal endorsement is a telling sign that more and more voters understand their constitutional rights and will stand up for the constitution, and want their leaders to do the same.

Royal endorsement of candidates in a democratic election makes it difficult for voters, especially the traditional ones in the majority of non-urban constituencies, to vote freely, thus making it difficult to ascertain if the candidates truly have the support of the people by choice or whether it was obtained by taking advantage of the voters’ cultural reluctance to vote against royalty.

As a result, if BN wins more than 40 seats in the Johor elections, there’s no way to be sure that the voters are returning to BN by free choice and that this trend can be predicted in the next general election (GE).

To determine that, there’s a need to look elsewhere such as in the Negri Sembilan state elections on Aug 1, which will follow the Johor elections on July 11.

The elections in Negri Sembilan will be fully democratic. The state is fortunate to have a ruler who respects the democratic processes of the people and stays out of them.

In the 2023 state elections, Pakatan Harapan (PH) led by winning 17 seats, followed by BN with 14 seats. They joined forces to form a coalition government. That alliance fell apart over the Undang issue when the four powerful state Undangs called for the sacking of the ruler, the Yam Tuan.

The issue led to BN withdrawing support for the PH-led government which was later overruled by the BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and the govt held but the Undang issue continued to simmer and eventually state elections were called.

Negri Sembilan has the chance to show whether BN’s former voters are convinced that BN is worth supporting again. BN’s opponent here is Perikatan Nasional (PN), which only won five seats in the 2023 state elections.

It will be a tough fight for PN in Negri Sembilan as it will have to pull votes from BN’s base, and for PH to maintain or increase its number of seats. In the urban areas, in three-way fights, the votes will be split and the outcome will be harder to predict.

If PN succeeds in reducing BN’s 2023 election results of 14 seats, it will be a truer reflection of the voters abandoning BN since they will be fighting for the same voter base.

If BN wins in Negri Sembilan there’s a basis to conclude that a similar result can be expected in the next GE.

These are some of the likely outcomes in both states’ elections. By following the current trends, the outcomes may seem more or less certain — unless, there are upsets.

Upsets are unexpected and prove that voters can buck the trend. Upsets happen mostly in a party or coalition’s stronghold.

In the Johor and Negri Sembilan state elections, the chances for an upset — albeit, very small — will be found in Malay-majority seats or in urban seats where the Malay votes will make the difference.

Upsets reveal a trend or a voter sentiment that was overlooked, unrecognised or dismissed.

With the level of disappointment on the ground over PH’s lack of reforms and unconstitutional decisions, and BN making use of its position in government to bring former prime minister Najib Razak back from prison and resorting to unconstitutional means to stay in government to win back the support it lost, it is reasonable to conjecture at this point that some voters can see what these leaders are up to and are not happy about it.

The place to see whether that voter unhappiness can translate to an upset is in those seats where the Malay vote will count. Will they vote for BN or PH or the alternative?

If upsets happen in these seats, it is a sure sign that Malay voters are sizing up the political climate correctly and will not be deceived.

That is a good sign for Malaysia. It shows that a new trend is emerging where Malay voters are abandoning their traditional loyalties and demanding accountability to the people.

Upsets may not prevent BN or PH from winning but they will eat into their respective majorities. That alone is a clear message that that emerging trend may may grow and determine the winners in the next GE.

Whether upsets will happen can not be predicted. If it happens, it means more and more Malay voters are ready to call the shots.